| 作者 |
 Commodity "Bubble" Review, for 隔世兄及其他朋友 |
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| 所跟贴 |
You slapped him hard but didn't provide any counter point. -- PHM - (811 Byte) 2006-5-28 周日, 08:39 (455 reads) |
不拉不拉
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[个人文集]
头衔: 海归中将
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加入时间: 2004/02/21
文章: 3505
海归分: 693209
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作者：不拉不拉 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
Come say hi to old buddies if you two are still lurking around.
My fundamental question here is, will printing money get us out of deflation? What is the end game? A permanent plateau for all asset prices due to money printing? Or we will revert to mean, no matter what route we take.
Not all money printing is created equal. Injection through lowering interest rate or open market operation (the conspiracy PPT program if you believe it) will have different unintended, side effects. Pouding down interest rate to the negative zone was obviously not intended to inflate the housing worldwide housing bubble, nevertheless, it happened. BOJ's operative mission was obviously not to fund a decade-long Yen carry trade, nevertheless it took hold. So money printing in the past, given all the existing circumstances in the past, led to real asset inflation. But apart from the X variable called money printing, there are numerous other variables that may not be replicated in the years ahead, so money printing may NOT lead to the same results.
Investment is about being a step, albeit a baby step, ahead of what is coming down the pipeline. If everyone sees the chill, it's already too late to dump anything. But I will give you that, a bubble needs to run its course. As far as I can tell, this may not be the final leg yet.
作者：不拉不拉 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
上一次由不拉不拉于2006-5-28 周日, 11:24修改，总共修改了1次
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