| 作者 |
 Commodity "Bubble" Review, for 隔世兄及其他朋友 |
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| 所跟贴 |
Commodity "Bubble" Review, for 隔世兄及其他朋友 -- Theme - (1256 Byte) 2006-5-28 周日, 04:50 (1776 reads) |
不拉不拉
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作者：不拉不拉 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
I want to single out gold, oil and agriculture from the other commodities for the discussion. The first two are quasi-currencies, and should USD falter, they will slide in swiftly to take up the void. Agriculture has some very unique properties, inelastic demand, perishability, and the divine intervention (weather).
Do you think CA or Shanghai RE gains are sustainable? Do you think any of these stock gains are sustainable? If you don't bet on the Fed injecting liquidity at some point to keep the nominal value high, I don't think any of these is sustainable.
I have let go all of my industrial metals. Overcapacity has become a structural problem in China, a time bomb that is definitely going to blow up. It is a matter of when, not if, not how. If the end buyer I am counting on to take over the copper, zinc etc. from me is not standing on stable ground, I am not sure how much more room for rally is left at this point.
BOJ seems to be mopping up liquidity at this point, in a concerted effort with ECB and Fed, at least that seems to be their intent. Now we need to see how badly the US housing will deflate given the record-high inventory. If it deflates badly, then perhaps the central bankers will be turning on the water tap again, but the effect of that on commodity is unknown. Because unlike before, this time the liquidity will be surgically injected at the banking bail-out plan, which may NOT affect commodity price one way or another.
I am still very bullish on oil, particularly NG at this price point. All we need is another smaller scale Katrina to make a killing.
作者：不拉不拉 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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