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 [讨论]如何选股和估价？ |
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[讨论]如何选股和估价？ -- 正月鼠 - (822 Byte) 2006-2-01 周三, 19:39 (1505 reads) |
雨林
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加入时间: 2006/01/22
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作者：雨林 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
#1 – Earnings Power
To be a real winner a stock needs earnings power – and plenty of it. Look for companies with earnings up more than 70 percent in the most recent quarter. Also, look for earnings results to have accelerated during the past two to three quarters. This means that earnings are still ramping up on a percentage basis. Most of the big movers have earnings up 150 to 400 percent quarter over quarter. For example, Taser Inc. (TASR) made a more than 5,000-percent move in 2003 and 2004 while earnings and revenue growth exceeded 200 percent or more every quarter for about six quarters. Another big mover that started in April 2003 and had similar earnings growth was Research in Motion (RIMM). See Figure 2.
#2 – Market Domination
Another aspect to look for is a stock in which the company was the dominant leader in its respective field. Qualcomm (QCOM) went from $225 to $800 (pre-split) in just six weeks. Yahoo! (YHOO) went from $80 to $400 (pre-split) in just three months in 1998 before GOOG was on the scene. Others include CMGI (a big mover during the Internet bubble that made a move of more than 6,000 percent in 20 months) and DELL, which went from $50 to $2,000 (pre-splits) over three years. All of these companies dominated their industries. DELL changed the way computer products were marketed, carried a small “just-in-time” inventory, in-home warranty service and the fastest computers of the day. This combination crushed competitors Compact and Gateway, and in so doing, made its shareholders rich. Market domination is the most overlooked aspect of selecting big winners in the market.
#3 – New Stocks, New Markets
The next piece of the puzzle is that all of these stocks were new or relatively new to the market. Also, most of them had new products that were being widely accepted, not only in the U.S., but also in most of the developed and emerging markets. Companies like GOOG are known and its products used around the globe – as are YHOO and RIMM.
#4 – Use Market Direction. Don’t Fight It
Most traders know that 60 to 70 percent of a stock’s move is determined by the overall direction of the market. But what is the best way to gauge which way the market is heading? Is there a better way than examining advancers minus decliners, waiting for an index trendline break or moving average crossover? Yes, and that is following the leader of the market. All that being said, however, even a strong stock will be fighting an uphill battle in a bear market. Look for strong stocks in a bull market – and laggards to short in a bear.
#5 – Little Known and Under Owned
The total number of shares that the public can buy is known as the float. Stocks that have a limited number of shares in the pubic float (less than 100 million shares) can experience explosive upside movements once they are discovered due to the small share supply. Taser (TASR) is good example of this. It started out with a float of just three million shares and now has a float of 57.2 million due to numerous stock splits. The stock price went ballistic in the process. There should be no more than 100 million shares in the float and the lower the better. Ideally, the goal is to find stocks that institutions are beginning to accumulate. This includes those with a higher degree of corporate executive insider ownership.
#6 – Patterns Tell the Real Story
This is where the fundamentals and technicals complement one another. Chart patterns will tell the trader that the stock is walking the fundamental walk and the market is recognizing this. You want to see the stock show good price action such as holding support and breaking resistance on increasing volume. Some of the best indicative patterns include bullish flag and pennant continuation patterns and cup-and-handle continuation patterns that show consolidation (see Figure 2). Remember bullish patterns are an indication of institutional accumulation.
#7 –Volume Holds the Key
Volume is the true indication, for those who know how to read it, of what market players are doing. During extended periods of consolidation, patterns like saucer and cup and handles are good indications that a move is imminent. But patterns by themselves are not much help unless there is volume support. Are traders buying dips or selling rallies? The first is bullish and is recognized by volume spikes following weakness or after a prolonged down move. The second is bearish, especially if volume builds after an extended up move, and means that either shorts are capitulating and covering or that Johnny-come-latelies are jumping on board. If volume increases as the stock drops, it means that the smart money is using rallies to unload and the shorts are borrowing to sell the stock short. When this happens, the ride usually is over. Bullish continuation patterns should show volume dropping as the pattern forms with volume spikes on the breakout. If there is no spike, the breakout is suspect.
#8 – Let the Leaders Tell You When to Go Long and When to Go Short
Never marry a stock (or the market). There are times to buy and times to sell, and market leaders provide advance warning that a reversal may be imminent. If the leaders begin to break down even in the face of good fundamentals, the market is probably not far behind. Once the market has turned, even a leader cannot fight the gravitational pull for long. No point in trying to trade or invest counter to the primary trend. When the market is going up, leaders will keep you in the trend, and when the market reverses and heads down, they’ll tell you when to sell and when it’s time to look for laggards to short.
#9 – Bullish Continuation Patterns
In a true bull rally, you should see a number of bullish flag and pennant patterns as well as gaps that generally aren’t filled for a while. It often appears as a stair-step-like pattern on the chart. When the breakouts happen on less volume than the prior breakout or gaps begin to get filled, the move is running out of gas. Sentiment also can be helpful. In a rally, stocks discount bad news. In a bear situation, they discount or ignore good news. Bad news, good action = bull. Good news, bad action = bear.
#10 – Other Considerations
Watching chart patterns and volume are two of the most powerful tools in picking market leaders. Other tools can be helpful, too. Technical tools such as trendlines, moving averages, the McClellan Oscillator, seasonal cycles and time cycles are examples. Look at the daily chart over a nine- to twelve-month period. Are there rhythmic dips and seasonal patterns? Resource and commodity stocks often exhibit distinct seasonal patterns based on growth and market cycles. Another important consideration is price. Cheap stocks rarely lead. Best to wait until they are more than $50 and become interesting to institutions.
作者：雨林 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 [讨论]如何选股和估价？ -- 正月鼠 - (822 Byte) 2006-2-01 周三, 19:39 (1505 reads) - 要看年龄，经济情况 -- 不拉不拉 - (630 Byte) 2006-2-02 周四, 15:08 (416 reads)
- 说得好！ -- 正月鼠 - (0 Byte) 2006-2-12 周日, 13:33 (289 reads)
- The Top-Ten List -- 雨林 - (6877 Byte) 2006-2-02 周四, 04:36 (510 reads)
- 我瞧瞧告诉你... -- yiersan - (231 Byte) 2006-2-01 周三, 20:17 (598 reads)
- 说的很对 -- 笑傲江湖 - (5 Byte) 2006-2-02 周四, 00:49 (218 reads)
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