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 zt: China credit curbs cap inflation |
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满地找牙
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作者：游客 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
https://money.cnn.com/2004/08/11/news/international/china.reut/index.htm
China credit curbs cap inflation
Export sector remains strong as national economy cools, but avoids crash as inflation peaks.
August 11, 2004: 8:04 AM EDT
BEIJING (Reuters) - China's credit tightening seems to be capping inflation but has left the export sector in strong shape, according to a batch of July data released Wednesday that depicts an economy cooling but not crashing.
China's producer prices rose 6.4 percent in the year through July, the same pace as in the 12 months to June, reinforcing expectations that inflationary pressures are peaking.
Economists said the report backed other data, including Tuesday's report of slowing industrial growth, showing that government tightening measures seem to be working in the world's seventh-biggest economy and that Beijing has no need to clamp down further -- at least for now.
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"I think it's a sign that steps to curb inflationary pressures and investment are showing effects and this is more evidence of that," said Prakash Sakpal, an economist at ING Financial Markets in Singapore.
Money and lending data from the central bank, regarded by economists as among the most reliable statistics in China, provided further evidence that the restrictions were biting.
Growth in the broad M2 measure of money supply slowed to 15.3 percent in the year to July from 16.2 percent in June.
The figure was well below the median forecast of 16.2 percent and left M2 trailing the central bank's target of 17 percent growth for all of 2004. New lending also fell slightly for the second month in a row.
"Financial operations were healthy and steady in July. Macroeconomic control continued to show results," the People's Bank of China, the central bank, said in a statement.
July's producer price index, which measures the price of goods at the factory gate, was up 0.2 percent from June, when it rose 0.4 percent, the State Statistical Bureau said.
The index, which had accelerated for four months in a row before leveling off in July, has been rising at its fastest rate since before the 1997 Asian financial crisis.
Worried that breakneck investment and resurgent inflation could trigger an economic bust, Beijing has taken a series of steps to curb expansion in sectors such as steel and property.
Exports still strong
The measures appeared to be taking the heat out of those industries, but other data on Wednesday suggested China's export juggernaut had been little affected.
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Exports were $51 billion in July, jumping nearly 34 percent from a year earlier, while imports were $49 billion, up 34.2 percent.
Although the growth rates marked a slowdown from the year to June, when exports rose by more than 46 percent and imports by 51 percent, analysts said they were in line with earlier months and would stay strong as long as U.S. and European consumers kept spending.
"If you look at the places where the investment curbs have been going in, it's things that are related to the domestic economy, like construction, automobiles, aluminum, steel and so forth," said Arthur Kroeber, managing editor of the China Economic Quarterly. Exporters were not so restricted.
"These guys are not affected by the cooling measures. The only thing they're affected by is shortages of power, the transportation bottlenecks."
China's exports have boomed as more foreign firms have turned to the low-wage country as a key production base. Imports have also jumped as the booming economy sucks in more machinery, raw materials and components to keep its export engine chugging.
July's $2 billion surplus was the third monthly surplus in a row and compared with a $1.6 billion surplus last July. It was roughly in line with the $2.2 billion median forecast of seven economists surveyed by Reuters.
In 2003, China had a surplus of more than $25 billion, but rising oil and other imports gave the country a deficit of $4.89 billion for the first seven months of this year.
Although China runs trade deficits with many neighboring countries, such as South Korea and Taiwan, its large and growing surplus with the United States has become a politically charged topic in the U.S. presidential campaign.
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作者：游客 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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