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 China Investment Curbs Send Chills Through Markets |
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uiop101
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加入时间: 2004/02/25
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作者：uiop101 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
By ALAN YONAN JR.
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
April 29, 2004 9:41 a.m.
China's efforts to slow its red-hot economy sent chills through Asian financial markets Thursday, although analysts said they believed China and the region would still avoid a sharp slide into recession.
Stocks, metals prices and currencies slipped across the region as warnings from Beijing's leadership and curbs on lending in China raised concern that Chinese companies could lose some of their insatiable appetite for raw materials.
Shares in mining, steel, transport and commodities trading firms from South Korea to Australia and even India were among the hardest-hit stocks, as those companies have been enjoying a boom in exports to China. The price of gold fell to a five-month low as investors worried that demand from China would diminish.
Although other factors were at play in the markets Thursday, such as improving sentiment toward the U.S. dollar, expectations for higher U.S. interest rates and a natural retracement in commodity prices after a sharp rise in previous months, analysts said the developments in China appeared to be a catalyst.
South Korean shares tumbled 2.9%, led by a 5.8% decline in Posco, the world's fourth-largest steel maker. Elsewhere, the main stock indexes were down 2.6% in Taiwan, 2.3% in Thailand, 1.8% in Singapore and 1.3% in Hong Kong in late Asian trading. Markets in Tokyo were closed for a holiday.
In foreign-exchange markets, most Asian currencies weakened against the U.S. dollar, with the Australian dollar particularly hard hit because of its links to commodity trade flows. It sank to a five-month low.
China has been taking steps for some time to curb investment, fearing its economy could overheat and spawn inflation. But Beijing's latest moves have appeared to escalate the effort, analysts said.
In recent days, Chinese authorities have stepped up their rhetoric against excessive investment and punished local officials for approving loans to an illegal steel project, while bankers have been told to suspend lending in hot sectors such as mortgages and export finance.
"Having just talked to policy-makers in Beijing, I was surprised, even shocked" to hear the news, said Gail Fosler, chief economist for the Conference Board, a leading New York-based business research group.
What Asian countries fear most is a "hard landing" for China's economy -- an uncontrolled slide into recession as domestic investment dries up.
"If China slows down, it's doomed to have a wide-ranging impact across the region," said Derek Lam, Fubon Securities' head of trading in Taipei.
The Asian Development Bank noted in a report earlier this week that while the region's increasing dependence on trade with China is a welcome development, it also means problems in China's economy will be more easily transmitted to the rest of the region. For example, China last year became Taiwan's biggest trading partner, surpassing the U.S.
For now, analysts see little chance of a hard landing. Fosler said China's economy is unlikely to slow much; the Conference Board forecasts growth there this year at 10% to 12%, which is higher than many foreign analysts' projections of 7% to 8%.
With the global recovery well entrenched, led by expected growth of 5.5% or better in the U.S. this year, "it is incomprehensible that the Chinese economy will in and of itself simply move in the opposite direction," Fosler said.
Sydney-based RBC Capital Markets strategist Gregg Gibbs agreed that China probably isn't in for a hard landing; he believes it will continue to serve as a source of support for the global commodities market.
"A pause in China's growth is possible as a give-back from a supercharged fourth quarter and first quarter, but fears of a sharp or persistent downturn in China are probably overblown," he said.
Commodity markets and producers may well resume a rising trend "once the froth is blown off this market", he added.
However, some analysts fear that if China doesn't slow down significantly this year, inflationary pressure will mount and force more drastic measures by the government next year -- measures which could in fact cause the hard landing that the markets fear.
作者：uiop101 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 China Investment Curbs Send Chills Through Markets -- uiop101 - (4252 Byte) 2004-4-30 周五, 06:44 (943 reads)
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