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 Got the feeling that China is done with the revaluation of rmb for 2005, |
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ceo/cfo
[博客]
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头衔: 海归中将
声望: 院士
性别: 
加入时间: 2004/11/05
文章: 12941
海归分: 491638
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作者：ceo/cfo 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
unless something dramatically happens. Will HK$ be the next to be unpegged from US$? since Malay's ringgit was unlinked from US$ as soon as China made the announcement. China's move yesterday caused a chain reaction to almost all the Asian currencies which were up against USD. Now the secret is what kind of a basket of currencies China is using? and what weight of each currency has in the basket? I assume it will contain USD, EURO, Japanese Yen, plus Korean Won, Taiwan currency, Malay's Ringgit (HK$ still pegs to US$). Since China's main trading partners are EU countries including the UK, USA, Japan, plus junior partners Taiwan, Korea, Malaysia, etc., my guess is 35% for US$, 25% for Euro, 25% for Jp Yen, total 85%; then 15% is splitted in Taiwan currency, Korean Won, and so forth. Of course the formula of the basket can be modified from time to time depending on the development of situations. China has started a very important first step, even it was a baby step, toward a "managed float" currency regime, between a fixed one and a freely flow one. Hopefully it can keep inflation controlled, interests relatively low, and drive Chinese people incomes higher so that they can spend more and live a better life.
Professional currency traders will continue using Non-Deliverable Forward market to bet on the upwards of rmb in short to mediam terms. Right now about 5 billion US$ change hands on a daily basis. It can be doubled soon after yesterday event.
As an individual like you and me, I still believe picking a condo in China here and there can be a valid hedge against possible further strength of rmb vs. US$ as well as against inflation and higher interest risks. I am glad I got another condo three months ago.
My one cent.
作者：ceo/cfo 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 Got the feeling that China is done with the revaluation of rmb for 2005, -- ceo/cfo - (1750 Byte) 2005-7-23 周六, 01:37 (1083 reads)
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