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 5月9日美国《新闻周刊》封面专题：中国世纪zz |
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5月9日美国《新闻周刊》封面专题：中国世纪zz -- Leolee - (516 Byte) 2005-5-06 周五, 02:04 (3133 reads) |
wanderer
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作者：wanderer 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
Fareed Zakaria 是这期封面文章《未来是否属于中国？》的作者。下面是他和读者有关该文的讨论：
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Lancaster, PA: Hello, Fareed. Quick question. Are you familiar with Gerald Segal’s article “Does China Matter” that appeared in "Foreign Affairs" September/October 1999 issue? This article largely downplayed the “hype” then concerning the rise of China. If you’ve read this article what can you say about the author’s observations then compared to realities concerning China today.
Fareed Zakaria: Hi, glad to be here. I'm writing in from Germany, where I am now, on my way to China, so my apologies for starting this somewhat late.
Yes I actually published that article in my previous role as managing editor of Foreign Affairs. His point was, remember the U.S., Japan, Germany have MUCH larger economies. That's true but it's China's growth rate plus its size that change the equation. If China reaches the same per capita GDP as Brazil—in other words still not a rich country by any means—it will have a bigger economy than that of the U.S. I don't know if it's true of everything, but here size really does matter.
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New York, NY: How feasible is it for China to maintain its incredible economic growth at the expense of the degradation to its environment, resources, and public health of its people?
Fareed Zakaria: Quite possible. First, the health of the Chinese people is getting better not worse. This is hardly surprising. As countries grow rich their people get access to better health care and sanitation. There are resources that they have access to and they will find technological solutions for others—for example, China is building 40 nuclear power plants in the next 15 years. That's more than the rest of the world put together.
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Las Vegas, NV: Why are we buying so much from China? Are we taxing the products that are being imported from China?
Fareed Zakaria: We buy stuff from China for a simple reason—it's cheap and good quality. That's how free markets work. The American consumer saves tens of billions of dollars by buying from places in the world that can produce stuff best and most cheaply. Do we have tariffs? Yes on some goods but mostly they are low. The US economic model in the post-1945 era has been to keep our markets open to all: that gives us all the advantages of cheap products, opens our industries to competition and forces them to be better and better. Ask yourself, would the American car industry have been better off keeping Japanese cars out or did that competition make Ford, etc. make better cars.
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Los Angeles, CA: With the emergence of the one-child policy in China many Chinese families are opting to have a male son over a female daughter. What are some of your predictions as to the future of the population and sustainability as whole when a majority of the population members are male?
Fareed Zakaria: Fascinating question. China's one child policy has helped it raise average incomes (because it has fewer mouths to feed) but it's having two unexpected and adverse effects. First, there are going to be WAY too many men in China. Because of selective abortions, even infanticide, the Chinese have ended up producing more boys than girls. That means lots of young men relative to women (in about 15 years). That's usually trouble—look at the Middle East. Second, China's population has actually slowed down too fast and in 20-25 years, they will actually begin experiencing the problems of advanced industrial countries—too few workers, too many retirees. It's a good reminder that governments shouldn't try too much social engineering.
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Manila, Philippines: Excellent analysis, packed with insights. Will the absence of democracy in China be its Achilles heel?
Fareed Zakaria: China is opening up. Every year over the last twenty in some sense, China has gotten freer. You can live, work, travel, and even worship more freely than ever before. I believe that they will even begin opening up politically. But will it be fast enough? I don't know. I think that their greatest heel is a related issue: how they handle nationalism. They think they can manage popular sentiments but they may not be able to. Dictatorships are often quite bad at handling these kinds of emotional issues.
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Shanghai, China: How many,or what percentage of Chinese speak English? How many, or what percentage of Americans speak Chinese?
Fareed Zakaria: By some accounts there are currently more people in China studying English than there are people in the United States (And you thought you wanted everyone to speak English right?!) In other words, about 300 million Chinese learning English. The number of Americans learning Chinese—spoken by 1.3 billion people worldwide—is tiny, perhaps 50,000. Today over a million Americans learn French, a language spoken by only 75 million people.Wrong priorities!
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Beijing, China: Why do you think China will be a challenge? When has China ever invaded any country? I think China has no such tradition.
Fareed Zakaria: I said challenge not threat. You're right that China has not been an expansionist power—though it fought border wars with India and Vietnam. But my point was more political and economic. The rise of China means that it gains political and economic influence and leverage in Asia. There is also a military aspect. otherwise why would China's defense budget be growing at over 10 percent a year?
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Boulder, CO: How long did it take for Mr. Zakaria to learn so much about modern China? I am a Beijing native. I wonder if Mr. Zakaria knows about the long-historical tension between Beijing people and people who are from the rest of China.
Fareed Zakaria: I've been interested in China for years and actually studied it a little bit when I was in college an then graduate school, many years ago. Since then I've gone there several times and try to keep up. Yes, I'm well aware of the tension between Beijing and the rest of the country, also increasingly between coastal China and inland China, and finally between the Muslim provinces in the east and Beijing. These regional tensions are a big issue that the Chinese leadership spends a lot of time worrying about.
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Ann Arbor, MI: What do you think about the claim that China's authoritarian rule is necessary for development? Authoritarian rule has obvious advantages (and disadvantages) for economic development—but do you think pulling 300-400 million out of poverty justifies the repression of other rights such as free speech?
Fareed Zakaria: I don't think anything justifies authoritarian rule. But as a matter of history, yes China and several other East Asian countries have been more successful than many poor democracies at economic development. And development is everything is dirt poor countries. For the peasant living on $1 a day, I'm sure he's happy to be spared that near-death existence and yes, he'll take a few abridgments of his freedom (temporarily he hopes). But the problem is this: many dictators have been politically repressive and economically stupid as well. think of Mobutu, Marcos, Mugabe. So how do you make sure you get an economically progressive dictator. It's a tough issue.
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Washington, DC: As the American child of Chinese immigrants, I feel that I am in a unique position to see the reality of China behind the hype or the doomsday scenarios. When I last visited China a year ago, I was struck by the increase in prosperity since my last visit in 1995, but I was even more shocked (along with my parents) at the amount of corruption that was evident everywhere. My parents say the corruption is much worse than it used to be. I saw street vendors selling fake receipts which allow workers to trick their employers into giving compensation for imaginary business expenses. My cousin told me of a friend who bought a degree in mechanical engineering for 1300 dollars from a well known Beijing university, and for another four hundred dollars was able to have a fake transcript inserted into the school's records. Along with these personal experiences, I have heard of riots in rural villages due to polluting factories protected by corrupt politicians. So far, China has been able to keep this under control and continue to develop ... but can this last if the politicians can't get the corruption under control? My mother says yes, but my father says you can't police corruption if the police are corrupt as well.
Fareed Zakaria: This is a good reality check. Things aren't perfect in China by a long shot. The corruption you talk about is a huge, huge problem—perhaps China's biggest development problem. Part of the reason is, the country is now quite decentralized. Plus there's a lot of money floating around. Will they be able to handle it? I think so. It won't go away, but they will make some headway. Remember, it doesn't have to become perfect. Every country has problems. But with all its problems, China is growing at 9%.
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Brooklyn, NY: How can young people best prepare themselves for a future where China is dominant?
Fareed Zakaria: Learn about China, learn about Asia. Travel. It's not just the rise of China. It's a whole new world out there, much more important, anxious to be heard, unwilling to be ignored. Americans really need to wake up to this.
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Modesto, CA: Many, Many items with American brand names are found in stores today, and for many years past. Is not American business now primarily responsible for China's prominence and success. Also, is not this same thing occurring in India, and to a lesser extent, other countries? Have we not just shot ourselves in our own—anatomy?
Fareed Zakaria: Well, what's the alternative? Close ourselves off from the world. Look, these countries are growing. they're too large to ignore. We can shut ourselves off from them and their good but that means we would have to pay higher prices, have industries that become less competitive, and lose any influence on how India and China develop. Instead we're trying to be involved, benefit from it ourselves, and have some influence on them.
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Manila, Philippines: And what about the European Union? Are they not also the next superpower? What issues can you give about EU and China?
Fareed Zakaria: Europe is a prosperous trading and economic grouping. It can not and will never act as one country on foreign and security policy. Also, it is having great trouble restricting and even greater trouble taking in immigrants, This will limit its future growth. Europe may turn out to be the superpower that just couldn't.
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Wilmett, IL: In how many years will China overtake U.S. as the biggest economy in the world? Or would it ever?
Fareed Zakaria: There are different ways to measure this. If you use standard measurements (so called real dollars) it will be quite a while, probably 40 years or so, assuming growth continues (though not at current rates). If you use another measure (purchasing power parity) China will overtake the US in around 20 years. I myself think that it won't be for a while, if ever. As you go up the ladder of development, it becomes more and more difficult. Your whole society needs to be highly sophisticated and modernized.
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San Francisco, CA: Is the world better with a fast-growing China?
Fareed Zakaria: This is in some ways the basic question: is it better for us that China succeed than that it fail. I would say, on the whole, yes. Better to have a huge expansion of capitalism, trade, consumers in the world. That will raise our living standards. Better to have the largest country in the world getting richer and feeling included in the global system than an aggrieved outsider, one that might want to foment trouble in various ways. Better to have a China that integrates into the world, which will make it's economics and politics and society more open, transparent, and accountable. Better to have a China that has the wealth and confidence to know that it's influential rather than feeling—like the Soviet Union or Saddam Hussein—that it needs to start wars to get attention, resources, and honors. It's not a path without complications and tradeoffs. And we as a society will have to get much better equipped to handle the competition—as people, as firms, as a country. But who said life was easy?
Thanks all, this has been great fun. Your questions were terrific.
作者：wanderer 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 5月9日美国《新闻周刊》封面专题：中国世纪zz -- Leolee - (516 Byte) 2005-5-06 周五, 02:04 (3133 reads) - 中国什么时候会超越美国？--- 与《新闻周刊》国际编辑Fareed Zakaria有关中国崛起的讨论 -- wanderer - (12758 Byte) 2005-5-07 周六, 05:35 (613 reads)
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