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 美国大选之夜的关键看点（北京时间是周三早上） |
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美国大选之夜的关键看点（北京时间是周三早上） -- 海归草 - (1954 Byte) 2012-11-05 周一, 12:37 (1685 reads) |
海归草
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作者：海归草 在 海归主坛 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
The presidential campaign has wrapped up pretty much the way smart folks in both parties expected all along: It's close, with the outcome dependent more on whose partisans are loyal on Election Day than on how many voters changed their minds along the way.
In fact, with partisans on both sides so dug in, never have so many billions of dollars been spent to move so few votes. So which factors determine who wins in such a race?
Here are five things to watch as Election Day and Election Night unfold:
How big is the turnout?
As a general proposition, if turnout is higher, that is probably good news for President Barack Obama. If it is lower, that is probably good news for Republican Mitt Romney.
Here's why. Throughout this year, Republicans have had the advantage in enthusiasm and intensity. Meanwhile, Democratic enthusiasm has been lower than when Mr. Obama won in 2008.
That means Mr. Romney's supporters—including groups such as evangelicals, who could be a potent factor in spots—seem likely to show up in force. The question is whether the president's will as well, despite not being as pumped up as in 2008.
That year, just more than 131 million Americans voted. That number is likely to be higher this year, simply because the voting-age population has grown. The key is percentage of turnout. Four years ago, 62.9% of eligible voters cast ballots. Watch whether the number of votes and the share of the electorate seem to be going up or down. If they are drifting down, that will be a sign the Obama turnout machine didn't work as well as Democrats hope.
What share of the electorate is made up of white voters?
Watch the exit polls for this number. In all pre-election polling, Mr. Romney is winning the white vote comfortably, while Mr. Obama wins the nonwhite vote by wide margins. So a key to figuring out the full equation is what proportion of the electorate is composed of white voters.
Exit polls in 2008 indicated that 74% of those who cast ballots were white. If the white share of the electorate drops, say to 72%, it seems pretty clear Mr. Obama will win. If it rises, to say 76%, that means Mr. Romney likely is going to win. If the level stays constant, it could be a long night.
Parallel question: Can Mr. Obama win 40% or more of the white vote? If he does, he'll be in good shape.
What's happening in college towns?
The performance of young adults is either Mr. Obama's secret weapon or his Achilles' heel. In pre-election polling, two findings stand out: Mr. Obama still is favored by a wide margin among voters aged 18 to 29, but the interest they express in this election is below that of four years ago.
So, the question is whether they come out to vote even if they aren't as enthused as before. Republicans think there is no way the Obama team can produce the same kind of turnout, or sustain the same level of support, among a group suffering high economic anxiety. Obama partisans say pre-election polling consistently underestimates the resilience of its young vote.
What's happening in Virginia?
Tons of ink have been spilled and thousands of minutes of television airtime have been consumed talking about the importance of Ohio and its 18 electoral votes. And indeed, Ohio is pivotal.
Less discussed is the importance of Virginia to Mr. Romney's electoral-college math. Put simply, Mr. Romney may well need to win Virginia's 13 votes first for Ohio to matter later. Let's assume, for example, that Mr. Romney wins North Carolina, Florida and Ohio as well as the swing states of New Hampshire and Colorado. He would still come up four electoral-college votes short of the 270 needed to win without Virginia.
He then would need a win among some states that don't look quite as friendly to him, such as Iowa, Wisconsin or, in a real long shot, Pennsylvania. The Romney path to victory really is Virginia first, then Ohio. Virginia's polls close early, at 7 p.m. Eastern time, so it is a good early test.
What's happening in the key counties of Ohio?
To get a better sense of what's happening in Ohio, don't just watch the state vote totals. Watch a few key counties.
Wall Street Journal counties expert Dante Chinni points to three. One is Hamilton, the home of Cincinnati and a county the Journal has been watching all year. Mr. Obama captured it in 2008, the first time a Democrat had done so since 1964. He doesn't have to win it this time, but he has to make it close.
Also watch Wood and Ottawa, two counties between Toledo and Cleveland that have gone with the state's winner in every presidential election since 1992.
作者：海归草 在 海归主坛 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 [] 美国大选之夜的关键看点（北京时间是周三早上） -- 海归草 - (1954 Byte) 2012-11-05 周一, 12:37 (1685 reads) - 华尔街日报的五个看点： -- 海归草 - (4847 Byte) 2012-11-06 周二, 17:04 (233 reads)
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