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预料之中。 -- theoretical - (0 Byte) 2011-3-15 周二, 12:39 (363 reads) |
emperorfan
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作者：emperorfan 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
- 1,367.13 (-14.21%)
Nikkei 225 Could Plunge to as Low as 7,000: Chartist
Published: Tuesday, 15 Mar 2011 | 12:06 AM ET Text Size
By: Daryl Guppy
CNBC Contributor
Twitter l<x>inkedInMore Share
The Japanese earthquake, tsunami and nuclear plant problems have inflicted a massive human toll. The effects will continue in the Japanese market for months and years to come. At the time of the Kobe earthquake in 1995 the Nikkei was in a much strong position than it was in 2011, prior to the current earthquake.
1995 was the start of a global bull run that carried markets to the frenzy of 2001 highs, although the Nikkei limped along. 2011, on the other hand, has global markets emerging slowly from the global financial crisis.
The Japanese market is very much weaker, with a very slow recovery from the 2009 lows. It is against these two backgrounds that we apply a technical analysis of the Nikkei. The first part looks at the potential downside targets.
There is limited consolidation activity between the support lows at 7,000 and the support/resistance level near 9,000. The market spent a limited time in this area between 2008 and 2009 so there is little evidence of good consolidation in this area. This increases the probability of a rapid fall towards 7,000.
Support at 7,000 has a significant technical problem. It is defined by two extreme lows. Historically this is a support level, but it has not been tested multiple times. It does not have an established history as a support level. It is below the June 2003 lows. Despite this lack of historical support traders will look for consolidation around this level. A fall to this level represents a 33% drop.
The reaction to the Kobe earthquake provides some guidance. The fall in response to this event was 27% from near 20,000 to near 14,500. The market fell quickly below support levels, and then developed a temporary rally prior to testing the previous downtrend low near 14,500. The single point in September 1992 provided a support target for the 1995 Kobe fall. The same may reoccur with the current market retreat.
作者：emperorfan 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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