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 ［讨论中国的泡泡］Richard Koo - A "Balance Sheet Recession" |
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［讨论中国的泡泡］Richard Koo - A "Balance Sheet Recession" -- 黄埔半期 - (437 Byte) 2011-2-27 周日, 03:53 (2416 reads) |
ipotrader
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作者：ipotrader 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
Fantastic lecture!
This is exactly what US is doing right now, i.e., government spends money to replace the spending by private sectors in order to boost the economy, now the question essentially becomes, does the deficit matter?
The Japanese government bond has been downgraded simply because the government spent a lot to boost its economy during the lost decades. But because Japan maintains a large trade surplus and thus large foreign reserve, its currency kept climbing even though the government deficit is sky high.
The US is an opposite story, because US maintains a large trade deficit, so huge government spending and thus high government deficit will drive the US dollar lower, until or unless there is a global financial crisis which results in risk taking aversion and drives the money back to US domestic market.
Huge government deficit and strong currency is certainly not a good thing for Japanese government, at least it makes the government more difficult to pay down the debt.
When Chinese bubble burst, the balance sheets for many companies will look horrible as well, considering so many companies are in the real estate business nowadays. So even if the central bank lowers the interest rate to zero, people will still borrow money to pay down the debt, and the government must spend to keep the economy going and unemployment rate low, but the Yuan may not depreciate, so where can the government spend money at that time? CRH?
作者：ipotrader 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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