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 [原创]越是在群众兴奋的时候，越要有冷静的头脑分析 |
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那日本QE后是怎么又开始跌的呢？ -- emperorfan - (1740 Byte) 2010-11-05 周五, 11:29 (650 reads) |
theoretical
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作者：theoretical 在 谈股论金 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
the capital that consumers and businesses are saving would normally have to be available to recirculate in the economy through loans or investments. This recirculation is precisely what is not happening today, or at least not nearly at the rate necessary to lift growth to a level that would create significant job growth. And this is the Keynesian lesson that fiscal and monetary policymakers appear to have forgotten as they have forged their post-crisis strategy – rather than indiscriminately easing monetary conditions, it is necessary to create an environment in which savings-conscious consumers and corporations are willing to allow their funds to recirculate.
The reason that the current recovery is below par is that the economy is experiencing a massive paradox of thrift. A combination of factors has led individual economic actors – both consumers and corporations – to believe that it is in their best individual interest to save rather to spend, to repay debt rather than borrow. The result has been an increase in the personal savings rate from slightly negative to approximately 6-7 percent, and a significant improvement in corporate balance sheets (corporations are now sitting on approximately $1 trillion of cash). This has improved the financial condition of these individual economic actors, but deprived the broader economy of consumption and investment spending.
Unwise economic policy choices have led to the current situation. Consumers are saving instead of spending because the value of their homes has declined significantly, which is a result of the pro-cyclical monetary policy and lack of regulation that contributed to the housing debacle. Businesses are limiting their hiring and expansion plans due to the increasing regulatory burden being placed on them by the government, by fears of impending tax increases, and by the general anti-business tone coming out of Washington D.C. Investors are fleeing the stock market because regulators don’t have the guts to stand up to Wall Street and address dangerous practices such as the repeal of the uptick rule, naked CDS on systemically important institutions (which allows speculators to mount bear raids on companies such as BP plc), and flash and algorithmic trading. The combination of all of these policy failures has led to a massive crisis of confidence in the American model of capitalism, which has become as badly corrupted as the Japanese model that is responsible for Japan’s decades of deflation and economic paralysis. And our current politics offers little prospect for change.
JPY is not world reserve currency. Its' movement has little impact on commodity trading. USD is completely different story. This is not common inflation, this will be pure lossing buying power in the future. To protect yourself, you need to stratigically long every necessity type of assets and precious me<x>tals.
If there any big difference between repubican and democrats now? Guess not, at least in terms of dealing with this crisis. I love universal health care, but I don't understand that bill, furthermore, I don't know if we can afford it. Financial reform? What financial reform? Anyway, I feel bad for those who still believe in those two parties. Oh, I forget about O8, I told my son:"This guy is a joke, now, laugh". 
作者：theoretical 在 谈股论金 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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