| 作者 |
 [转帖]谢国忠的预测记录 |
 |
| 所跟贴 |
老谢不是搞macro的。50%的正确率基本就是乱指了，比反指还差一点。 -- theoretical - (36 Byte) 2010-10-04 周一, 14:50 (414 reads) |
乐闻德
[博客]
声望: 院士
性别:  年龄: 50
加入时间: 2009/08/02
文章: 6342
来自: Den Vereinigten Staaten
海归分: 47
|
|
|
作者：乐闻德 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
老谢如果不是搞MARCO的，有两点不好解释：
（1）为何一毕业就进入IMF工作？
（2）他的观点受Austrian School影响。
Career
Xie graduated from Massachusetts Institute of Technology with a M.S. in Civil Engineering. He then obtained a PhD in Economics from Massachusetts Institute of Technology [4] in 1990 and went on to become an economist for IMF, specialising in South-east Asian economies. He joined Morgan Stanley in 1997 as a Managing Director, and is noted for his provocative views on the Chinese economy. His bearish calls on Shanghai property and Chinese stock market have attracted criticism from Chinese officials. In China, some local government economists criticized his bearish calls on Chinese Asset Bubble-Burst Cycle and questioned his personality, claiming him as an "American Parrot".
Xie is one of the few economists who accurately predicted economic bubbles including the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, dot-com bubble (1999) and Subprime mortgage crisis (2008). Xie considers himself as one who has had a reasonably good record at calling bubbles in the past. "I wrote my doctoral thesis arguing that Japan was a bubble in late 1980s, a long report at the World Bank in the early 1990s arguing that Southeast Asia was a bubble, research notes at Morgan Stanley in 1999 calling dotcom boom a bubble, and numerous research notes from 2003 onwards arguing that the U.S. property market was a bubble. On the other hand I have never called something a bubble that turned out not to be a bubble."[5]
[edit] Views
Xie's economic views are influenced by the Austrian School.
Xie described the Chinese economy as a "Panda Economy", which is named after "Kung Fu Panda" -- a popular Hollywood cartoon movie. [6] He argued that the Chinese economy was not as "nice and juicy" as most people thought and that China has enough space to adjust its political and economic policies to boost its economy only if it decides to reform the income distribution system and stir consumer demand. However, the real estate bubble might kill consumer demand in China. He also criticized economic policy makers across the world as being guilty of replacing an old bubble with a new bubble without real structural reform. He warned that if no structural reform is initiated, the world economy will go back to a 1970's era stagflation. Xie coined the term "Panda Put", in reference to the popular phrase "Greenspan put", to describe the situation where investors in China believe that the government will not allow the stock market to go down before important dates in the Chinese calendar, like the 60th anniversary of the PRC or the 17th Party Congress. [7]
Xie believes that to keep China from being an export dependant economy, the PRC government will need to redistribute the wealth to its citizens. [8] It can do so via distributing shares of the State-owned companies (SoE) to its citizens and lowering housing costs. [9]
Xie has suggested that in order to cool property speculation in China caused by excess surplus liquidity, the central government can consider imposing an 80% capital gains tax on property flipping, decreasing 10% each year afterwards. [10]
Xie comments that Japan's low birth rate (1.4%) is partially due to the real estate bubble in the 1980s where China currently is following in the same track. Chinese land policy and short term government behaviors provide the perfect ground for a semi-permanent property bubble. An economic crisis similar to the Great Depression might happen in China within 20 years when Chinese baby boomers (born between 1950 to 1978) start to retire. [11]
Reference:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andy_Xie
I couldn't find his CV but if you happen to have one, could you please post it? Thanks! 
作者：乐闻德 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
|
|
|
| 返回顶端 |
|
 |
|
| |
|
|
|
您不能在本论坛发表新主题, 不能回复主题, 不能编辑自己的文章, 不能删除自己的文章, 不能发表投票, 您 不可以 发表活动帖子在本论坛, 不能添加附件不能下载文件, |
|
|
