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 equity market may face correctional reversal |
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emperorfan
[博客]
年龄: 51
加入时间: 2010/02/05
文章: 2008
海归分: 814623
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作者：emperorfan 在 谈股论金 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
looks like equity market set for a direction reversal.
1. AUS $, NZ$ and EURO are near the top of the current uptrend
2. US Dollar measures by dollar index is trading at $81 near the 200 DMA a 50% retracement from its rally from 74 to 88. a major support level.
3. Weak dollar driven commodity prices will have setback on trend reversal - commodity stocks may retrace its recent 20% gains.
4. Crude oil is backtesting the July 2009 - Current uptrend line at $82 5. SP-500 is trading near the 200 DMA.
It is all set for a correction ahead or break down in USD resulting in some more upside potential. Probability is more towards correction than a market rally.
Market rally is probable too, if breakout is combined with volume.
Will the correction turn into a longer bleeding depends on macro factors:
It seems tax hikes are inevitable.
A potential military conflict with Iran or North Korea.
The pressure on emerging markets and commodity country to hike their rates.
Renewed worry on Euro and US consumers.
Mid-term election politics, including blaming China...
Unfortunately, I can not post some interesting charts here.
Theo is unloading his long position selectively, and have not started shorting.
I may short some AU$ and EURO, buy gold on dip, and unload some small caps. bullish on energy.
Still holding TLT, as the yield curve flattening.
Also, risky options on 2Q earning from time to time
I like KRA, OAS. EPE, MICC, CLB, OMG
作者：emperorfan 在 谈股论金 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 equity market may face correctional reversal -- emperorfan - (1518 Byte) 2010-8-06 周五, 13:09 (1863 reads)
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