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 请parisparis出来继续说几句，EU有没有散伙的可能，美国有媒体在说德国人想撂挑子了 |
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请parisparis出来继续说几句，EU有没有散伙的可能，美国有媒体在说德国人想撂挑子了 -- 我是驹 - (0 Byte) 2010-5-15 周六, 01:13 (1495 reads) |
emperorfan
[博客]
年龄: 51
加入时间: 2010/02/05
文章: 2008
海归分: 814623
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作者：emperorfan 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
If euro club reorganize members and restructure debts,
I will buy the new euro.
EURO total crush?
Caution: With luck, the crisis could still become a blessing for the Eurozone.
(1) The periphery is now delivering some fiscal and structural
reforms.
(2) Europe’s fiscal surveillance tools will make a repeat crisis more unlikely.
(3) Continental Europe is on the fiscal adjustment in the years ahead. Additionally, Britain has now ended up with the Conservative-Liberal coalition that may move to a sustainable fiscal stance.
(4) Cheaper Euro is good for export.
5) The message is clear that the zone will not abandon Euro.
(6) They bough time:1-2 years.
Now the leaders need to convince their people: 'United we stand'. the people need to vote 'yes, we can',--even under sacrifice.
Rumor has it that European people are buying precious metal.
If Euro break 1.15, Fed and IMF will interfere somehow. They will sell gold.
Provide liquidity. Or even help to buy debt or allow bank hold debt under lower risk weight. Or interfere CDS and currency market to attack speculator.
SP500's exposure is only 25-30%, but if the crisis trigger fear, doubt on consensus, and negative feedback loop, the correction can go deep.
Once the catalyst is over: 'default/restructure', re-org, then market will rally ...maybe after September.
Frankly, I hate bailout after bailout, enough is enough.
作者：emperorfan 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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