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 [原创]高处不胜寒之六: Quantum Fund Co-found Jim Rogers Interview |
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积极生活态度
头衔: 海归中校
声望: 学员
性别:  年龄: -1354
加入时间: 2009/05/30
文章: 525
来自: 3rd World
海归分: 56593
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作者：积极生活态度 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
Frontier Journal (FJ): Jim Rogers is a world-renowned historian, philosopher and most important investor. Jim, today I have a couple of questions, so what is your impression on market performance during the past year and what is your impression and the China market performance during the past year?
Jim Rogers (JR): Well. U.S. market has gone up a bit. I would have thought it would stop going up by now because I think it is time for it to go down for a while. Chinese market has been go been going through the roof, which I fully expected. I think it's getting big, become a bubble, if it doesn't stop going up soon, it will be a problem in a year or so and the people would have to sell. I hope the government will get it under control and it will go down so I can buy more. But if it doubles again, double or triple again, I will have to sell, everybody has to sell.
FJ: I see. So let's focus on stock market. So when you evaluate a stock, do you consider the fundamental, or you just look at the, you know, seems like practically when we evaluate the stock market?
JR: Well stock market is stock.
FJ: But what is the main driver for the mainstream market fundamentally?
JR: Well. that would take a whole book.
FJ: Ya.
JR: to go into it. the economy, the interest rate, the state of the government, the state of the rule of law, the state of the currency, the state of many things. One has to analyze and put together into a package.
FJ: I see. There are two examples. For examples, in the early days in your career, your partner and you picked the defense sector to invest, and made a great return. So how do you guys saw this opportunity at that time?
JR: I got it in some of the books. Everybody was losing huge amount of money and the government cut back spending, we lost the war in Vietnam, defense was very out of favor, and it came pretty clear that the Arab is rallying war. And that America has to spend more money on defense. So I figured the company will not go bankrupt and we bought them.
FJ: Yesterday I checked the P/E ratio of IBM, is a century long, high tech company. P/E ratio of just 16.8. If you look at many high tech stocks in NASDAQ they are along maybe 100 or 350. Some of them are several hundreds P/E ratio. So, do you think that is important when we pick a stock, we have to pay attention to the balance sheet, P/E ratio, Earning Per Share, or totally different way?
JR: Ya. We have to pay attention because the ratio is one of the indicators of whether the company is cheap or expensive. But the P/E ratio is not the only thing; you would have to really determine the forward prospect of the company. If the company has very good prospect and it is cheap on the P/E ratio, then it should be bought. If it got a high P/E ratio and it doest have such a good prospect going forward, it should be sold. You judge just by the P/E ratio, you have to judge everything else, the many things I mentioned before.
FJ: So. Overall, investors today might invest either in real estate market, stock market, commodity market, and bond. So overall, what do you think 4 markets, correlation among 4 markets: real estate, stock, commodity and bond?
JR: You left out. Currency markets are bigger than all those markets combined, well sometimes there is great correlation, sometimes there is not. When Japan was great, good, in the 70's, 80's, its currency went up, stock went up, and its real estate went up too, everything went up in Japan. But that is not always the case. We can have stock market going up and currency going down; we can have stock market going up and bond interest is high. So each individual country and each individual market is different depending on the historic time. There are no simple answers. If there were, there is a simple formula, everybody will be extremely rich. That's why it's so hard to be a successful investor. everything changes all the time, you have to figure out which is best, which works.
FJ: So when you make an investment decision, you would like to judge from historical perspective. If you look at the history, during 1980 both Japanese stock market and Taiwanese stock market were expanding probably ten times to twenty times. Mind that in China, Chinese economy is booming, do you think this is really just a bubble or it still has bigger potential to expand. Right now the evaluation, do you think that Chinese stock high?
JR: I know that the Chinese stock market evaluation is too high, most people should not buy. That does not mean they won't go much higher. When bubble develop, crazy things happen and you will see prices go to absurd level. We may be having a problem developing China right now and if that's the case it will go much much higher. That does not mean you should buy. I am not suggesting anybody to buy China now, I am just saying when you have a bubble, when America had a bubble in the late 90's, and stock had sold at absurd price. When Japan had a level in late 80's, prices sold unbelievable level. So, in a bubble, crazy crazy things happen.
FJ: I see. Now let's talk about Chinese real estate market, especially for those major bigger cities, like Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen. Pricing, real estate pricing is kept on going and no trend going to stop. What is your prospect on real estate market in China?
JR: Well. The government has said they are going to stop the price from going up so much. I would've thought they would've taken tougher measures by now then they have. They have not taken tougher measures tougher measure necessarily to stop the bubble in real estate from developing. Unfortunately the bigger the bubble develops, when it pops, where is it going to be. I don't know when your government is going to do something strict, part of the problem, of course, is the government has created so so much liquidity, it got to go somewhere, so it is going to stock, going to real estate, and they are creating bubbles. One solution, of course, would be to make the currency convertible, and the money could go elsewhere as well and you wouldn't have so much money sloshing around, but your government has decided not to do that for some reason.
FJ: Yeah, I think our government probably hasn't. For example, if they want to stop the real estate market drive force, the average citizen lifestyle may be impacted. But, you know Jim, if you compare the housing prices in Taipei, Hong Kong, Singapore, or let alone Tokyo, real estate pricing tag in Shanghai and Beijing are still quite low, what do you think?
JR: I mean that's a little crazy, Japan is a much much much richer country than China, that's crazy. I don't understand that. That is like staying in Dubai, staying in Shanghai is much cheaper than Dubai, but of course it is. Arab is a much richer country. Shanghai is much cheaper than New York, while America is a richer country. If you are going stability, if you have a bubble, it will eventually break. Government will make them pop or bubble will pop by themselves. All bubble has always pop. If and when they pop, you will have a lot of very very unhappy angry people. So it is better to prevent a bubble than let it develop and pop. If you want stability, you better not let the bubble develop because when it pops everybody is angry.
FJ: So do you regard you as a long-term investor, middle term investor, or short-term investor? How do you follow your gut when you decide to buy and sell? You know, judge the timing...
JR: I try not to follow my gut; I try to follow my brain...
FJ: Ok haha.
JR: Rational analysis. If something is cheap by evaluation, things are going to getting better, and then I try to buy it. But I certainly make mistake too.
FJ: So. In one of your bestseller book, Adventure Capitalist, you told us Euro gonna fail, U.S. dollar is not in failure position right now. So do you think it is possible for people to devise some kind of smart brand new monetary system to replace current system?
JR: Well, people have tried that for several thousands years, no one has ever come out with a sound system yet. Many things have been tried, the problem is, if you come out with a sound system, eventually people want to take advantage of it and problems develop, even like how it is now. Once we have the gold standard works for a while, then people going to take advantage of it, politician especially. So no matter how sound you have, it will work until it becomes unsound. Now floating currencies, have been and are, probably the best way to have a currency system. If every country would let their currency float and the market would determine the answer, the problem of that is, there are many governments which cheat and try to control the float, that makes it impossible to have a free system. While the best system would be if every currency would free floating and the market determine its own value. Unfortunately, politicians always find a ways around that especially if the country is having a bad time.
FJ: So. During the last interview, you told me that unify the currency worldwide will never be possible. How about unifying the currencies in whole Asia like what the European are using Euro?
JR: It could happen. Yes, it could happen. Will it survive? I doubt it! No currency union has ever survived for very long, anywhere in the history of the world. And the European are trying it again, they tried it in Europe before, they tried it in smaller scale. One time, the Scandinavian had a unified currency. That's a small area, very small populations, they all were the same. But even something as small as that could not survive because eventually because local politician started find, take advantage of thing and none had ever survive. I would like to see the Asian try it too. Would it survive? I doubt it. But certainly it's not a good thing to try.
FJ: So yeah, during commodity boom, stock can be expected to decline, why this time, both commodity market and stock market are both doing very well?
JR: Well. That is correct, but you are looking at too short of time period. I'm talking about the course of major boom market or the course of major bear market, since the commodity market boom started at 1999, commodity's up about 250%, stock were up about 60%. So yeah, if you're looking at any month, any quarter, any year, they may be some kind of correlation. But if you look at the big picture, they have not been correlated before, maybe they will be in the future, but they have never been before. And I'm talking about the big picture, I'm not talking about quarter of the year, I'm talking about the secular bull market.
FJ: Oh, yes, yes, I see, I see, I understand. So do you believe in history when you make any kind of investment decision?
JR: Whenever I make decision, I look through the future.
FJ: The future.
JR: The part of making analysis is understanding what's happening in history before and knowing just because somebody says this time is the world. I know people have sort that out before, I know none of this is new. So it is very important to understand history that certain great thing's changed, and you make huge fortune when the future does change, but you need to put into context of history. That's just part of the analysis.
FJ: Yeah learning from history. So my last question would be, Jim, if we comparing the new economy it does exist to the old economy, there are a lot of new thing right now happen. For example, alternative energy, alternative food, biotech or some kind of things, will that make any kind of impact on our investment perspective? For example, oil pricing is rising, but suppose any new technology that they invent some alternative energy, for example, solar power and wind. Will that kind of thing make any change?
JR: Of course! I mean that is a dumb question. Yes. Yes. Yes. Solar power becomes cheap and efficient and economical. Of course there would be a gigantic future of wind power, of course! I mean what kind of question is that? If solar power becomes cheaper than oil and coal and uranium, then of course it's going to have a huge huge huge future, gigantic fortune will be made and they will change the world.
FJ: Ya, the Middle East...
JR: just like saying, telephone comes along, would it be a good invention, of course. If telephone comes along, everybody uses it, and it's very cheap, it would be a great great great business. That's a dumb question, don't ask me dumb question.
FJ: Yes yes yes. So we should adopt totally new mindset when make investment decision?
JR: We should always be looking for totally new mindset. You should always keep a totally new mindset because the world is always changing and if you don't change with it, you will not be a good, successful investor. You should always look for the major major changes, that's how you get rich. Don't be stuck in the past, look through the future. Understand the past, understand what's happening in the past but look through the future.
FJ: Yeah, that'll be great! Jim. Thanks for your time. Ok bye bye.
JR: Bye bye.
作者：积极生活态度 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 [原创]高处不胜寒之六: Quantum Fund Co-found Jim Rogers Interview -- 积极生活态度 - (13295 Byte) 2009-6-27 周六, 10:30 (2078 reads)
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