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 [原创] 黄金~~临近抉择的时刻了![2009年1月4日] |
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[原创] 黄金~~临近抉择的时刻了![2009年1月4日] -- JACKSAILOR - (1239 Byte) 2009-1-05 周一, 04:27 (3836 reads) |
网客JT
[博客]
头衔: 海归上校
声望: 博导
加入时间: 2008/01/11
文章: 1021
海归分: 97019
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作者：网客JT 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
Main thesis:
There may be much harder economic landing (or crashing) in 09'. (if this happens, equity price will have much further to fall, V-shaped or U-shaped no matter) While fly-to-safety factor means this is bullish for gold, forced across-the-board liquidation means this is BEARISH for gold.
Reasoning:
1) intended effect of current FED policy: lower rates, inject money, to save banks with bad assets (immediate goal), to stimulate economy (low rates stirs up demand for loans).
2) possible unintended consequences:
a) long term rates so low that lenders refuse to lend (hence reduce supply for loans) --this scenario has rarely been considered by monetarists;
b) bad asset kept on the books instead of being purged (painfully) from the system (look at Japan's lost decade, i.e. liquidity trap phenomenon)
3) if the bad of 2) overcomes the good of 1) (how likely is this? probably quite high), then economy will slow down much further, which is usually described with the word "crash landing", which is exactly what Uncle Ben has been trying to prevent.
4) evidence? money multiplier is just having a nose dive (see most recent FED chart below), which may (or may not, but less likely) imply that velocity of money is seriously slowing down.
For a quick glance of velocity of money chart, see FED data here:
https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/mt/ (scroll down & click on "page 12")
For an absolutely extreme -- yet quite intriguing -- view on M1 money multiplier crashing induced tail-spin scenario,
see here:
https://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/703-Uh-Oh.....-Monetary-Flat-Spin.html
(By the way, the factors discussed are exactly what Paul Krugman has been screaming about for years -- about Japan's --- LIQUIDITY TRAP mechanism)
For sharing, not for predicting,  as even Uncle Ben couldn't be sure what will happen next, how can any other mortals?
Happy trading.
作者：网客JT 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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