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[转]WSJ:Hard-Fought, Historic Contest Ends With Obama Victory -- 游客 - (13293 Byte) 2008-11-05 周三, 15:06 (1499 reads) |
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作者：游客 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
2008年11月05日
The presidential race entered a critical three-day period in September when the economic crisis cast the candidates' differences in sharp relief.
On Sept. 24, with financial markets verging on panic and the economy thudding, Democratic Sen. Barack Obama placed a call to rival John McCain. He wanted to suggest they issue a joint statement on proposed financial-bailout legislation. As hours went by without a return call, Obama aides emailed each other, asking, 'Have you heard anything ' One answered: 'The McCain camp is cooking up something.'
Later that day, Sen. McCain went before the cameras to say he was suspending his campaign to focus on helping craft the legislation. 'What does that mean -- suspend the campaign ' Sen. Obama asked his staff on the trail, according to aides. At a news conference in Florida, he said, 'It's going to be part of the president's job to be able to deal with more than one thing at once.'
Beyond the economic tumult, troubles in the McCain camp had contributed to the Republican's extraordinary move. These included a shaky performance by his running mate in a mock debate and an admonition to Sen. McCain by some major donors to quit blasting Wall Street and focus on solutions. Suspending the campaign, one McCain adviser recalls hoping, would let them 'push the reset button.'
The next day, while conservative House Republicans maneuvered behind the scenes to block the bailout bill, Sen. McCain sat largely silent at a crisis summit at the White House. Afterward, Sen. Obama called his staff from his car: 'I've never seen anything like this,' he said, according to several aides. 'Some of the Republicans are clueless. Bush and I were trying to convince them.'
The presidential candidates were essentially tied at the time, a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll showed, with Sen. McCain just a point behind. But in the next few weeks, as the handling of the economic crisis overshadowed all other issues, Sen. Obama opened a 10-point lead. Although Sen. McCain began to gain some ground at the end, he never fully recovered from the pivotal late-September juncture.
Sen. Obama's recipe for victory, of course, had many ingredients: a record $640 million haul of donations, a vast network of campaign workers, his stance against the Iraq war, his success in portraying his foe as heir to an unpopular president. But after a total of roughly $1 billion spent by the two candidates over 21 months, the campaign came down to the unexpected.
For all the ads and debates and focus groups, voters also got a gut-check test of how each man would react to a crisis.
How the candidates responded -- Sen. McCain's dramatic moves and sometimes-uneven temperament and Sen. Obama's more analytical reaction and calm vibe -- was a window into how they made decisions. And voters responded.
Mark Salter, a longtime confidant of Sen. McCain, said, 'The markets' collapse would have hurt no matter what we did, unless [Sen. McCain] had come out against the bailout' plan proposed by the Treasury, which many voters opposed as a rescue for Wall Street. 'But he believed that would have been irresponsible and hurt the country.'
Heading into the general-election campaign in June, Sen. McCain had been in a good place. He had won the Republican nomination early enough to be rested and ready after the bitterly fought Obama-Clinton contest.
But in a strategy session of five McCain advisers -- campaign manager Rick Davis, pollster Bill McInturff, strategist Steve Schmidt, ad-maker Fred Davis and strategist Greg Strimple -- the back and forth revealed a fundamental problem. Fred Davis posed a question designed to give the campaign a central focus: 'Why should we elect John McCain ' Tellingly, after several hours of debate, the five couldn't reach a consensus.
'Without an overriding rationale, our campaign necessarily turned tactical rather than strategic,' one adviser recalls. 'We focused more on why Obama should not be president, but much less on why McCain should be.' By contrast, the Obama team hewed tightly to its original 'framing theory,' says David Axelrod, its chief strategist, who had worked with the Illinois Democratic senator for years. 'From the start, we defined this election as about change versus more of the same.'
At their Chicago headquarters, Mr. Axelrod and campaign manager David Plouffe set out 'seven pillars' the campaign must do well: the vice-presidential choice, the convention, a European trip to meet with heads of state and the four debates. As an afterthought, he added, 'Of course, we'll have to handle the unexpected.'
Sen. McCain soon did the unexpected, picking Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate. The Obama campaign watched her rousing performance at the Republican convention and focus groups assembled to test the voter reaction. Obama advisers couldn't believe what they were hearing. 'Sarah Palin is one of us' was an oft-heard refrain. 'She can help John McCain shake up Washington' was another common theme.
On his weekly strategy call with Democratic senators after the Republican convention in early September, Obama Chief of Staff Jim Messina began, 'Let me walk you through this week's events.' He was cut off by angry senators calling for a more aggressive response to the Republican running-mate pick: 'Go after Palin.' 'Define Palin.' 'Make the race about Palin.' Mr. Messina was startled by the new nervousness in the party ranks.
In a Sept. 11 meeting in Chicago, Mr. Axelrod addressed his staff. They were worrying about a budding 'Palin phenomenon.' They had downsized some scheduled events in reaction to her and to ads that painted Sen. Obama as a celebrity. But 'this campaign gets in trouble when we do little things; we're better at big things,' Mr. Axelrod said. 'This race is about the economy and change. For everyone panicking, calm down.'
The next Monday, Sept. 15, Sen. Obama's campaign opened with big rallies, overflow crowds and sweeping rhetoric, to the effect that a McCain administration would equal a third Bush term. 'The large events got us back to our energy and momentum,' says senior adviser Anita Dunn. At the Colorado state fairgrounds in Pueblo, Sen. Obama addressed a crowd estimated at 13,500.
That same Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled more than 500 points, with Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in bankruptcy court and other financial firms, such as American International Group Inc., struggling. On the stump, Sen. McCain sought to reassure voters. 'The fundamentals of the economy are strong,' he said.
Sen. Obama attacked: 'Sen. McCain, what economy are you talking about?' he said.
Sen. McCain fought back by slamming Wall Street for 'reckless conduct, corruption and unbridled greed,' even saying he would fire the Republican Securities and Exchange Commissioner, Christopher Cox.
A worrying sign for the Republicans now arose: Gov. Palin emerged from seclusion and faltered in the few high-profile TV interviews she gave.
Behind the scenes, she and her husband weren't entirely happy on the campaign trail, according to Republican operatives. Todd Palin expressed concern that overpreparation forced on his wife was part of the reason she was underperforming. He called McCain headquarters in Arlington, Va., with pointed questions about how they were isolating Gov. Palin from her own advisers and friends.
The economic turmoil then took center stage in the campaign on Wednesday, Sept. 24 -- the start of a three-day stretch that proved pivotal. Congress was debating a bailout of the financial markets, proposed by the Treasury Department, costing hundreds of billions of dollars.
Sen. McCain and Gov. Palin were in New York for the United Nations General Assembly. In a hotel room, the Alaska governor went through her first mock debate. Word trickled out to a few Republican strategists that she wasn't ready to face the political veteran Sen. Obama had picked for his ticket, Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware.
She also gave an interview to Katie Couric of CBS News that made some Republicans worry. In a rambling answer to a question about handling the economy, Gov. Palin said: 'Ultimately, what the bailout does is help those that are concerned about the health-care reform that is needed to help shore up our economy to help, uhhh, it's gotta be all about job creation, too.'
Meanwhile, Sen. McCain was meeting with Wall Street supporters such as investor Henry Kravis, J.P. Morgan Chase Vice Chairman James B. Lee Jr. and Merrill Lynch Chief Executive John Thain, who told him the global credit markets could 'seize up' without definitive action. Some chided the candidate for attacking all of Wall Street and suggesting financial CEOs shouldn't make more than the president's salary of $400,000.
In Clearwater, Fla., that Wednesday, preparing for a first presidential debate that was two days away, Sen. Obama waited for Sen. McCain to return his call about a possible joint statement on the principles that bailout legislation ought to reflect. The Obama camp was getting antsy. Aides didn't see any activities by Sen. McCain that would keep him from calling back.
Around 2:30 p.m., Sen. McCain called Sen. Obama to say a joint statement might be appropriate, adding that they should consider suspending their campaigns and postponing the coming debate to work on congressional efforts to ease the crisis.
After hanging up, Sen. McCain went before the media. 'I will suspend my campaign,' he said. He also said he and his Democratic counterpart should postpone the Friday debate to work on financial legislation being pushed by the Bush administration.
Obama aides were apoplectic. 'This is a gimmick,' Communications Director Dan Pfeiffer told his staff. 'It's tonally off. There's no outcry for the candidates to get involved. It reeks.' He ordered a press release saying Sen. Obama had made the first move that morning by calling Sen. McCain for a joint statement.
When Sen. Obama arrived at his Florida hotel, his top advisers gave him the news. He kept his usual calm, though puzzled and incredulous. 'One of us will win and have to deal with the economy -- and everything else,' an aide recalls him saying. He wasn't budging on the debate.
Obama advisers told the University of Mississippi, the debate host, that their man would appear on Friday, with or without Sen. McCain. They explored converting the debate into a town-hall event if the Republican didn't show up.
A McCain adviser, Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, raised the idea of moving the debate into the slot for the vice-presidential debate a week later. Some in both parties took that as a signal that Gov. Palin needed more time to prepare.
On Thursday, both candidates attended a White House meeting on the proposed bailout legislation. Even as they did so, conservative House Republicans were maneuvering to block it with an alternative plan. Sen. McCain said little at the White House meeting, which was inconclusive.
Then, on the debate issue, he bl<x>inked: He said that progress was being made on a bailout bill, and he would attend the debate. Though neither candidate had been able to prepare much in the last two days, both arrived in Oxford, Miss., that afternoon.
Minutes before the debate began, Sen. Obama confided to Mr. Axelrod that he was 'nervous,' but after all of the debate over the debate, he wanted to get on with it. 'Just give me the ball. Let's play the game,' he said, according to Mr. Axelrod.
Polling afterward found that viewers thought Sen. Obama performed strongly. In the days following, his lead grew.
To several McCain advisers, Sen. McCain's public show of dealing with the crisis by trying to broker a bailout deal between the president and Congress had fallen flat. 'We completely blew it,' said one. 'The execution of a potentially great move couldn't have been worse.'
But Mr. Salter doesn't think briefly putting the campaign on hold was a mistake. 'Even if John hadn't suspended his campaign, the unprecedented financial meltdown was going to help Obama,' he says.
When voters were asked in a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll about 10 days later which candidate would be better at improving the economy, 46% said Sen. Obama and 29% said Sen. McCain. Asked which presidential ticket was doing better in debates, the respondents favored Obama/Biden by 50% to 29% over McCain/Palin.
While Sen. McCain struggled to recover, the Obama campaign kicked into high gear. Contributions poured in, adding up to $150 million in September. The campaign started airing expensive 120-second commercials so often that some worried they could be to the point of overkill, one operative says.
Obama field workers, mostly volunteers, reached nearly two million voters a week, according to national field director Jon Carson. The campaign already had deployed armies of lawyers to battleground states, after statisticians studying voter registrations predicted a huge turnout.
For their part, the McCain people worried about the potential for voter fraud. Campaign manager Rick Davis pushed for more attention to the voter-registration efforts of Acorn, a group allied with Democrats that was criticized for turning in voter registrations with fake names. 'Hit this hard,' Mr. Davis shouted on one conference call with senior staff.
On the McCain campaign's last major strategy call, a dark mood prevailed as the campaign closed. The Arizona senator's advisers lamented that everything that could go wrong did go wrong, at a time when some 90% of Americans were telling pollsters the country was on the wrong track. Suggesting that Sen. McCain would be blamed for anything bad, chief strategist Steve Schmidt said in his nasal voice, 'There's one event we forgot to plan for, the bubonic plague.' No one laughed.
As Democrats and pundits began predicting an Obama victory, his campaign wouldn't tolerate the exuberance. A note on a bathroom door in the Chicago headquarters warned workers to remember how -- when they were on a high after winning the Iowa caucuses -- Hillary Clinton had shocked them with a primary victory. 'If you feel giddy or cocky,' the note read, 'I have two words for you -- New Hampshire.'
Sen. Obama himself kept pressing Tueday, with a final campaign trip to the swing state of Indiana. Back in Chicago, he did a batch of TV and radio interviews for battleground markets, then grabbed the satellite schedule from an aide and autographed it, adding a flourish: 'That's a wrap.'
Monica Langley
▀ 麦凯恩是怎样输掉大选的
9月份，总统竞选进入关键的3天，经济危机使两位候选人的差异鲜明地凸现出来。
9 月24日，在金融市场接近恐慌边缘、经济形势遭受重击之际，民主党参议员奥巴马(Barack Obama)给竞选对手麦凯恩(John McCain)打电话。他想建议双方针对金融救助计划草案发表一份共同声明。几个小时过去了，奥巴马没有接到回电。奥巴马的副手相互在电子邮件中问：你那里听到什么消息了吗？其中一个人回答：麦凯恩阵营正在谋划着什么。
当天稍后，麦凯恩在电视镜头前说，他已暂停竞选活动，专心参与起草救助法案的工作。据一位副手说，奥巴马针对这段画面问工作人员：“这话什么意思──暂停竞选？”周五在佛罗里达州的一个新闻发布会上，奥巴马说：能够同时处理多项事务将是总统职责的一部分。
除了动荡的经济形势之外，共和党作出的这一不同寻常之举也跟麦凯恩阵营的问题有关，其中包括其竞选伙伴在模拟电视辩论中表现很差；一些主要捐款人告诫麦凯恩停止抨击华尔街、专注于制定对策。麦凯恩的一位顾问回忆到，当时希望暂停竞选能让他们有机会重新再来。
第二天，在保守的众议院共和党人设法在幕后阻止救助法案通过时，麦凯恩在危机达到顶点之际基本上待在白宫一言未发。据奥巴马的副手说，后来，奥巴马从车里打电话给他的工作人员说：我从未见过这样的事。有些共和党人真是没有脑子。布什和我在试图说服他们。
《华尔街日报》/NBC电视频道的民调显示，当时，两位总统候选人基本上旗鼓相当，麦凯恩只落后一个百分点。但在接下来的几个星期，随着经济危机问题的紧迫性超过了其他所有问题，奥巴马开始出现10个点的领先优势。虽然麦凯恩最后收复部分失地，但他始终未能从9月底那个关键时刻完全恢复过来。
当然，奥巴马之所以能获胜，原因也有很多：创纪录的6.4亿美元竞选捐款；大量的竞选工作人员；他在伊拉克战争上的立场、成功地将对手描绘为一个不受欢迎的总统的继承人。但在历时21个多月、合计开销10多亿美元的漫长竞选历程之后，最终结果仍是由意料之外的事情决定的。
尽管有各种各样的广告、辩论和利益团体的活动，选民对两位候选人对危机的反应也作出了自己的决断。
候选人的反应成为选民们考察两人决策能力的窗口。选民们看到了，也作出了自己的反应。麦凯恩很戏剧化而且有时情绪不太稳定，而奥巴马的反应更重分析、表现平静。
麦凯恩多年的密友萨尔特(Mark Salter)说，无论我们做什么，市场的崩溃都会带来严重损害，除非麦凯恩出来反对财政部提出的救助计划，许多选民认为那项计划是在救华尔街。但麦凯恩认为，那样做将是不负责任的行为，会有损美国。
6月份开始进入全国大选时，麦凯恩的形势一直不错。在奥巴马和希拉里争得不可开交的时候，他早早获得了共和党提名，可以养精蓄锐。
但在麦凯恩的5位竞选顾问（竞选经理Rick Davis、民调员Bill McInturff 、策略专家Steve Schmidt、广告制作人Fred Davis和策略专家Greg Strimple）举行的策略会议上，他们之间的反反复复暴露出一个根本问题。5位顾问中，Fred Davis提出了一个意在给麦凯恩阵营设置一个中心点的问题：我们为什么应该选择麦凯恩？在几个小时的讨论后，5位顾问没能达成一致。这很说明问题。
一位顾问回忆道，由于没有得出有说服力的理由，我们竞选阵营有必要转向更依靠战术而不是战略。我们把关注点更多的放在为什么奥巴马不适合做总统，而较少关注为什么麦凯恩应该当选。相比之下，奥巴马竞选团队首席策略师大卫·艾索洛(David Axelrod)表示，他们始终坚守原先的“框架理论”。与奥巴马共事多年的艾索洛说，我们从一开始就把此次选举定性为锐意变革与换汤不换药之间的竞争。
在位于芝加哥的竞选总部，艾索洛和竞选团队经理普罗夫(David Plouffe)制定了竞选过程必须做好的“基础事项”：选择副总统、竞选集会、出访欧洲会见各国首脑以及四次竞选辩论。后来他又补充道：当然，我们还必须应对意外情况。
意外状况很快就出现了--麦凯恩选择了阿拉斯加州长萨拉·佩林(Sarah Palin)作竞选搭档。奥巴马阵营观察了佩林在共和党大会上振奋人心的亮相，组织焦点小组访谈试探选民们的反应。奥巴马的顾问们简直不能相信他们所听到的。常听到的一句话是“佩林是我们中的一员”，还有就是“她能辅佐麦凯恩重整华盛顿”。
9月初的共和党大会后，奥巴马幕僚长梅西纳 (Jim Messina)在与民主党参议员的每周例行战略会议上，刚刚开口“让我们梳理一下这周发生的事件。”恼怒的参议员们打断了他的话，要求对共和党选择佩林作竞选伙伴作出更大力度的反应：“盯住她”、“剖析她”、“压倒她的气势”。党内大佬们新出现的紧张情绪令梅西纳大为惊讶。
在9月11日的芝加哥会议上，艾索洛对他的手下发表了讲话。他们当时都对刚刚冒头的“佩林现象”忧心忡忡。他们削减了一些既定集会的规模，以应对佩林的锋芒，回击把奥巴马描绘为明星人物的广告。但艾索洛说道，如果我们低调无为，那就会陷入被动；我们必须全面出击，才能赢得先机。这场大选的主题是经济和变革。他对手下安抚道：每个恐慌的人，冷静下来。
下一个周一（9月15日），奥巴马阵营以大规模集会、人潮涌动的观众和激烈的言辞拉开了反击序幕，目标是让选民认为麦凯恩执政无异于布什的第三个任期。高级顾问邓恩(Anita Dunn)表示，大张旗鼓使我们重新斗志昂扬。在科罗拉多州普韦布洛，奥巴马面对大约1.35万名观众发表了讲话。
就是那个周一，道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数暴跌超过500点，雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers Holdings)申请破产，美国国际集团(AIG)等其他金融公司苦苦挣扎。麦凯恩在巡回演说中试图安抚选民，表示美国经济基本面依然强劲。
奥巴马回击道：“麦凯恩参议员，你说的是哪国的经济？”
麦凯恩随后也予以回击，大举抨击华尔街的“肆意妄为、腐败以及贪得无厌”，甚至扬言他会让美国证券交易委员会(SEC)主席、共和党人考克斯(Christopher Cox)下课。
现在令共和党人担忧的一个迹象出现了：佩林在几次重要电视采访中表现的孤陋寡闻和言语支吾。
据共和党工作人员透露，佩林和她丈夫私下对竞选过程并不是十分满意。托德·佩林(Todd Palin)认为，强加于佩林的过度准备是她表现不佳的原因之一。他致电麦凯恩在弗吉尼亚州阿灵顿的竞选总部，直截了当地质疑他们将佩林与她自己的顾问和朋友隔离开的做法。
随后，在9月24日（周三）的竞选活动中，经济动荡成为了中心议题，这也是成为转折点的三天的开始。当时美国国会正在争论财政部提出的数千亿美元的金融市场救助方案。
麦凯恩和佩林在纽约参加联合国大会。在宾馆的房间里，这位阿拉斯加州州长进行了首次模拟辩论排练。据一些少数共和党策略师得到的消息，她还没有为迎战奥巴马选择的副总统候选人、资深政治家拜登(Joe Biden)做好准备。
她接受哥伦比亚广播公司(CBS)主持人凯蒂·库里奇(Katie Couric)采访时的表现也令部分共和党人忧心忡忡。面对如何处理经济的问题，佩林漫不经心地回答道：最终，救助方案要做的是帮助那些对医疗改革感到担心的人，而医疗改革是必须的，有助于提振我们的经济，嗯，这也都是创造就业的问题。
与此同时，麦凯恩则会见了华尔街的支持者，如投资者克拉维斯(Henry Kravis)、摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase)副董事长詹姆斯·李(James B. Lee)和美林(Merrill Lynch)首席执行长塞恩(John Thain)。他们向麦凯恩说，如果不采取果断行动，全球信贷市场可能会“失灵”。一些人指责麦凯恩攻击整个华尔街、称金融机构首席执行长的收入不应比总统40万美元的工资还高。
当天，在佛罗里达州Clearwater，奥巴马正在准备两天后的首次总统候选人辩论，他也在等着麦凯恩就救助法案应反映的原则发表共同声明可能性的回电。奥巴马阵营坐立不安。助手们并未了解到有任何可能让麦凯恩无法回电的活动。
在下午2点30分左右，麦凯恩致电奥巴马称，联合声明的做法是适当的，并表示应考虑暂停竞选活动，推迟即将进行的辩论，同国会共同努力缓解危机。
在放下电话后，麦凯恩接受了媒体采访。他说，他将暂停竞选活动。他还称，他和民主党总统候选人应该推迟周五的辩论，以致力于布什政府正在推进的金融立法。
奥巴马的助手们甚为不满。联络主管费福尔(Dan Pfeiffer)对手下说，这是一个噱头，这偏离了主题。并没有要求候选人参加金融立法的呼声。他下令发布新闻稿称，奥巴马在当天早上首先致电麦凯恩要求发表联合声明。
当奥巴马到达在佛罗里达州的宾馆时，他的高级顾问将这个消息告诉了他。他保持了一贯的冷静，不过也有些迷惑和怀疑。一位助手记得奥巴马当时说，我们中有一人将会获胜，不得不处理经济以及其它所有事情。他没有改变辩论日程。
奥巴马的顾问向辩论的支持方密西西比大学称，他们一方周五将会到场，无论麦凯恩是否参加。他们考虑，如果共和党人不参加，他们考虑将辩论改为民众问答会。
麦凯恩的顾问、南卡罗来纳州参议员格雷厄姆(Lindsey Graham)提出了将辩论挪到一周后副总统候选人的辩论时间。两党中都有人将此视为佩林需要更多时间准备的信号。
周四，两位候选人参加了有关救助法案的白宫会议。既便如此，众议院保守共和党人也在想方设法用替代计划阻止这项救助法案。麦凯恩在白宫的会议上讲话不多，这次会议也无果而终。
接下来，在竞选辩论问题上麦凯恩改了主意。他说，救助计划已取得进展，他将参加辩论。虽然奥巴马和麦凯恩在辩论开始前的两天都没时间做充分准备，但他们在辩论当天的下午都赶到了密西西比州牛津市。
在辩论开始前几分钟，奥巴马向艾索洛透露：他感到“紧张”，但在有关这次辩论的一切事情都谈妥后，他希望能投入这次辩论。据艾索洛讲，奥巴马当时说，把球给我吧，让我们继续玩下去。
辩论结束后的民调显示，观众们认为奥巴马在辩论中表现得很好。在辩论结束后的几天内，他的领先优势有了扩大。
对麦凯恩的一些顾问来说，他试图在达成救助计划应对当前金融危机上调解总统与国会分歧以展示其应对危机能力的努力已完全失败。其中一位顾问说，我们完全搞砸了，在实施一项有可能载入史册的行动方面不可能做得更糟了。
但萨尔特并不认为暂时中止选举活动是一个错误。他说，即使麦凯恩当时没有暂停竞选，这场史无前例的金融危机也会助奥巴马一臂之力。
《华尔街日报》和NBC新闻频道在辩论结束10天左右进行的民调显示，在哪位候选人更有能力改善美国经济这个问题上，46%的受访者选择奥巴马，29%的人选择麦凯恩。而在哪对竞选搭档的辩论表现更佳这一问题上，50%的受访者选择了奥巴马/拜登，只有29%的受访者选择麦凯恩/佩林。
虽然麦凯恩奋起直追，但奥巴马的选举攻势也加大了马力。竞选捐款如雪片般涌来，9月份时已达1.5亿美元。一位工作人员说，奥巴马耗费巨资打造的120秒宣传广告是如此密集，有些人甚至担心广告有可能做过头了。
据奥巴马阵营负责全国基层助选工作的乔恩•卡森(Jon Carson)说，奥巴马的基层助选员每周会联络近200万选民。这些助选员大多是志愿者。奥巴马阵营还把大量律师派到两党争夺激烈的州，研究选民登记情况的统计人员此前预计，这些州会有大量选民出来投票。
而麦凯恩阵营则对可能出现的选举欺诈感到担忧。麦凯恩的竞选负责人里克•戴维斯(Rick Davis)要求对一类人的选民登记情况给予更密切关注，这些民主党的同盟者被指责在选民登记时使用假名。戴维斯一次在与麦凯恩阵营要主人员开电话会议时高喊，要狠狠打击这一现象。
在麦凯恩阵营最后一次讨论选举策略的重要电话会议上，随着竞选活动接近尾声，一种黯淡的情绪弥漫在大家心头。麦凯恩的顾问们哀叹，任何有可能出错的环节都出了错，而那时有差不多90%的美国人告诉民调人员，美国走错了路。担心美国选民这次会将所有的怨气都撒在麦凯恩身上，他的首席选举策略师史蒂夫•施密特 (Steve Schmidt)用浓重的鼻音说道：“有一件事我们忘记事先筹划了，黑死病。”没一个人笑。
就在民主党人和评论人士开始预测奥巴马将赢得选战之际，他的竞选团队却不敢有丝毫懈怠。一条贴在奥巴马芝加哥竞选总部洗手间门上的提示警告工作人员，别忘了当初他们在民主党初选时正为奥巴马赢得艾奥瓦州欢庆之际，希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)的一场胜利让他们大吃一惊。这则提示写道：如果你感觉飘飘然或骄傲自满，我送给你几个字──新罕布什尔。
奥巴马将自己周二的日程排得满满的，他的最后一次竞选旅行选择前往正与麦凯恩展开激烈争夺的印第安纳州。返回芝加哥后，他又针对选情热烈的几个州做了几个电视和电台采访，接着他从一名助手手中抓过一张媒体采访计划表，在上面署上了自己的大名。他一边给签名加上花框，一边说：“大功告成了”。
作者：游客 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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