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最近一期《经济学人》中中国房子的数据 -- 筋斗云 - (225 Byte) 2008-10-29 周三, 09:17 (2324 reads) |
筋斗云
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头衔: 海归少校
声望: 教授
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加入时间: 2004/02/14
文章: 2995
来自: 成都
海归分: 17312
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作者：筋斗云 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
>>Since 2000 average home prices have actually decreased relative to >>average incomes, in contrast to the surge in America until 2006 (see chart)
CHINA has become the main engine of the world economy, accounting for one-third of global GDP growth
in the first half of this year. Will it keep humming? Compared with many other emerging economies,
notably Brazil and Russia, which have recently suffered big capital outflows, China has so far largely
shrugged off the global credit crunch. But there are signs that China’s economy is sputtering. Export
volumes have slowed markedly; the growth of industrial production dropped to a six-year low in the 12
months to August; car sales fell by 6% in the same period; and China’s property boom seems to be
turning to bust.
Some of the recent slowdown reflects the temporary closure of factories around Beijing during the Olympic
games, which cleared the air but made China’s statistics even hazier than usual. Yet the underlying
economy has also weakened, especially in the housing market. Property sales in big cities have shrunk by
around 50% over the past year. In Shenzhen prices of new luxury apartments have fallen by up to 40%.
Average prices nationwide have started to slide, although they were still up by 5.3% in the year to
August. Falling sales and a rising stock of new homes mean that prices are set to decline in more cities in
2009.
Predictions that average house prices could fall by up to 50% have recently grabbed the headlines. But
they seem much too gloomy. After all, there has been no nationwide house-price bubble. Since 2000
average home prices have actually decreased relative to average incomes, in contrast to the surge in
America until 2006 (see chart). As a result, average home prices are unlikely to fall for long.
China’s banks should also be able to withstand falling house prices
better than their American counterparts. In America it was easy to
get a mortgage for 100% or more of the value of a home, but
Chinese buyers must put down a minimum deposit of 20-30%,
depending on the home’s size, and as much as 40% on second
homes. This provides banks with a large buffer as prices fall. Loans
to property developers are riskier and banks’ profits will be hurt as
developers go bust. But according to Wang Tao, an economist at
UBS, these loans account for only 7% of total bank lending.
More generally, China’s banks should be better insulated from the
global credit crunch than Western banks because the country’s
system is funded through deposits rather than capital markets.
Chinese banks’ loans amount to only 65% of their deposits,
compared with far higher ratios in America and western Europe.
A fall in house prices will in any case hurt Chinese consumers
much less than their American counterparts because Chinese households are not up to their necks in debt.
Total household debt amounts to only 13% of GDP, against 100% in America. Chinese consumer spending
actually strengthened this summer, with retail sales rising by 17% in real terms in the year to August. The
main impact of the property downturn will be to depress construction.
The government also has room for manoeuvre. Inflation, which had been its main concern, fell to 4.9% in
the year to August from 8.7% in February. This was largely thanks to lower food prices, but the growth in
money supply has also slowed. Goldman Sachs forecasts that inflation will fall to 1.5% in 2009, which
gives the central bank scope to ease monetary policy. Interest rates were cut for the second time in a
month on October 8th, to 6.9%, and the government is expected soon to ease credit controls, especially
for property.
China’s GDP growth slowed to an annual rate of a mere 10.1% in the second quarter of this year, from
12.6% a year earlier, and most economists expect it to drop to 8-9% in 2009. But this slowdown should
partly be welcomed, because the economy had been exceeding its speed limit for several years. Better
still, China’s growth next year will come entirely from domestic demand, as its trade surplus shrinks. If the
global downturn forces China to switch the mix of growth from exports to consumption, it would also help
to make its future growth more sustainable.
The government is expected to supply a fiscal stimulus to keep growth above 8%. The package will
include tax cuts and extra infrastructure spending. Economists are also urging increased spending on
social welfare to encourage consumers to save less and spend more. China has ample room for a stimulus
because it boasts the healthiest fiscal position of any big economy. According to Stephen Green, an
economist at Standard Chartered, it has a budget surplus of 2% of GDP, if measured in the same way as
in rich economies, and public-sector debt is a mere 16% of GDP. China’s readiness to use fiscal lubrication
is the best reason for hoping that its economic motor will not stall.
作者：筋斗云 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 最近一期《经济学人》中中国房子的数据 -- 筋斗云 - (225 Byte) 2008-10-29 周三, 09:17 (2324 reads) - China is pretty well placed to cushion a global downturn -- 筋斗云 - (4970 Byte) 2008-10-29 周三, 11:05 (469 reads)
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