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不好意思，你在跟我讨论一个我不是很懂行的主题。 -- tutu - (587 Byte) 2008-10-24 周五, 08:52 (414 reads) |
parisparis
头衔: 海归少将
声望: 讲师
加入时间: 2004/09/04
文章: 1996
海归分: 276207
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作者：parisparis 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
I enjoy all your posts. Here is my reply to your questions:
关于“All EU nations have VAT system ”，你说得是对的。但是他们出口报价都是不包括VAT部分的。他们的政府对出口产品征收VAT吗？
----VAT tax regime has a common principle: tax free export. Therefore, there is no VAT levied on export (on the value added in the last stage) and the exporting firm should have tax return for its VAT-in.
China's gov was too poor and there were too many VAT tax fraud in China after the 1994 tax reform. China tried to follow the tax-free principle. Therefore, all export has no VAT levied on value-added on the last stage, but the VAT-in is not fully refunded.
Say, VAT-in rate is 17%, but gov could only give back 5% or 10% or 15%... There is also a lot of delay in the refunding process, thus create cash flow problem for exporting firms.
至于 “China should return tax money to poor people asap” 和“gov should tackle the income disparity problem asap to stimulate demand to help Chinese firms.”，这个我搞不懂，我只有听的份，而且这跟6＋1关系不大，所以忽略了你的 point。不过这听起来像劫富济贫。你说是不是应该贫困地区的出口退税应该高一些，沿海地区的的退税低一些，这样大家就争着把工厂搬去青海宁夏了。
---You misunderstand my ponts. China's consumption/GDP ratio is 35% and in most EU nations, the normal range is 60% to 65%. China-US trade is abnormal: US produces nothing, except the greenback IOUs and China produces all the consumer goods.
All capitalism nations had the common problem of overproduction and insufficient aggregate demand problem before WWII. This problem was not solved until Franklin Roosevelt took power and carried out new deal in US. He did exactly 劫富济贫 and created a huge middle-class in US. Thus, US avoid becoming another Latin America and start to generate SUFFICIENT CONSUMER DEMAND from its own people--there was not export market for America at all.
If you check US data, in late 1940s, 1950 and early 1960s, US's growth is mainly supported by domestic consumer demand and everyone enjoyed the benefits of growth through wealth sharing (tax system to peacefully transfer wealth among various Americans) and increase in living standards. If you are in US, buy a ABC video--This Century, America's Time--it will help you alot to understand this blessed nation.
你说是不是应该贫困地区的出口退税应该高一些，沿海地区的的退税低一些
---NO, I am not talking about VAT tax. Increase VAT refund rate is what I called SUPPLY-side policy. The logic goes like this: if gov subsizies more the export and allows it to lower price and compete well in US, we KEEP more jobs and support our production capacity.
This policy is stupid because US demand is decelerating at an alarming rate--Sep auto sale in US fell by 35%! More bad news is in the pipeline. You are subsizing American consumers and earning more hatred from America.
The tax RMB can be more effective if it could be given to poor people (just as Bush did in March-May 2008) in direct income tax refund, average Chinese can gain purchasing power and create NEW AGGREGATE DEMAND and domestic consumption--thus help Chinese exporters.
This kind of tax policy is DEMAND-SIDE policy.
中国人相当一部分已经很奢侈很浪费
---there are still 800m Chinese who might not afford two pairs of pants. If you have excess capacity for making pants, why not think about ways to help them to gain purchasing power, rather THAN TO TREAT THEM LIKE dirty cheap 200RMB-per-month labor? Average Americans already have 20 or 30 China-made pants, their credit card balance is too high, they will not want to add one more from China...
Roosevelt has established a good example for us. China can either create a large middle-class and thus support itself or become another polarized society like the Latin America.
BTW, China enjoyed RMB1trillion surplus in tax in the first half of 2008. That's extremely abnormal--macro economics will tell you that the excessive tax revenue surplus means the gov is sucking blood from the economic activities. I am speechless to read this number.
It also tells you tax burden in China is too high and China has lots of money to give out to its own CITIZENS.
BTW, US gov is now contemplating a second tax refund to POOR PEOPLE (I did not get the previous tax refund, nor will I be qualified for the 2nd one. But as a taxpayer, I support both emergency actions) to stimulate domestic demand. China should follow what US did, this country's elites are much more smart than the corrupted elites back in China. Of course, you will say US budget deficit is larger and who will finance them. Trust me, China will buy more US bonds and finance this next cut. Because it has no choice.
If USD depreciates more and collapses, Americans do not care---they rip off Europeans in 1960s doing exactly the same thing. US Treasury Secretary said in 1960s: USD is our currency, but your headache. Because USD is the global reserve currency, if USD loses it, Americans still have all kinds of cheap consumer goods here, less pollution, enough military capacity to fend off all creditors. America is abundant with good land, forest, all kinds of natural resources and safest geopolitical position in the world. If US closes the door, everybody suffers from OVERCAPACITY. Last overcapacity was solved by WWII in Europe---all production lines, infrastructure were destroyed, thus the fiasco created DEMAND for consumer goods and new investment needs.
关于普遍认为的中国内需不旺，我的观察是中国人相当一部分已经很奢侈很浪费，现在的80后都会用信用卡，卡刷爆了就啃老，几乎就跟美国人一样了，人家美国佬还没有啃老的财政支持呢。真正没机会消费的，是广大农民。农民的收入怎么提高呢，要么提高农产品价格（这样一来美国的农产品更有竞争力了），要么像日本那样补贴农产品。现在人家忙着收上来的税用来建税局大楼，大量增加税局公务员，return tax money to poor people 这档子事好像没有我们什么事，我们还是专心做自己的事情吧。
---现在人家忙着收上来的税用来建税局大楼--hehe, fully agree with you. Now you see representative democracy beats authoritarian regmine, maybe not in short run, but will in the LONG run, esp., during crisis. The former serves its citizens and the latter serves its upper echelon and foreign masters--Americans.
No matter how "advanced" China was propaganded to be, this forthcoming depression will beat China back into its original shape.
Massive overcapacity will haunt China for years.
作者：parisparis 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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