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 Fannie Mae 和 Freddie Mac 已被政府接管, 哪位大虾给分析一下对房事，股市的影响，以及中国政府等债 |
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Fannie Mae 和 Freddie Mac 已被政府接管, 哪位大虾给分析一下对房事，股市的影响，以及中国政府等债 -- mmpower - (5 Byte) 2008-9-08 周一, 10:24 (2189 reads) |
theoretical
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作者：theoretical 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
1. 这不算是新闻，只不过是个确认。2F的common股票基本清零，中国持有的prefered 股票影响不大。
2. 短期对金融业和大盘有较大的推动作用，相当于是强心剂，政府买单，缓和危机，长期作用不过是将危机拉长。
3. 周一大盘会有大幅Gap Up. S&P的阻力带在 1263。
至于个人如何操作，是追涨还是加空，如果这看不清楚的话，要好好考虑是不是在股市里玩儿下去。
转一个说得比较细的：
FRE/FNM will be in conservatorship (vs. bailout), the equivalence to chapter 11 of corporations. As you know, in almost all the cases for corporations, common share holders are wiped out in chap11 filing.
winners:
1) current debt holders of FRE/FNM such as asia central banks and Bill Gross' PIMCO, as the agency debts will virtually become US treasury debts.
neutural:
1) current preferred share holders. Preferred shares won't be paid whole but they are likely paid at or a little more than its current market price, namely, 40-50% of the face values.
losers:
1) common share holders. i believe the common share holders will be either entirely wiped out or at best paid a nominal price.
2) US treasury holders. as agency debts become treasuries, the spread between agency debt and treasury will be reduced dramatically. The current spread for 2yr is more than 95bp.
3) future home buyers as mortgage rates will likely be higher.
4) tax payers (particulary we HTers) who would shoulder the loss ultimately. note: only 70% people in US is currently paying any tax at all and this percentage will reduce to 50% if Obama becomes the next president and indeed execute his welfare policy (what a joke!). The tax burden will be on the shoulders of those 'rich', and unfortunately many HTers will be in this category.
作者：theoretical 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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