| 作者 |
 纯经济帖：中国打算报着天天贬值的美元擦屁股纸到什么时候？ |
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我觉得是中国的掌权者对美国的掌权者估计错误 -- 不拉不拉 - (210 Byte) 2008-4-23 周三, 14:19 (883 reads) |
parisparis
头衔: 海归少将
声望: 讲师
加入时间: 2004/09/04
文章: 1996
海归分: 276207
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作者：parisparis 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
oil and agricultural product futures as hedge, most of the benefits from the weak dollar will quickly fade away.
1.High oil price (futures price) resulted in larger oil-related current account deficit (since spot market price will be adjusted accordingly, with a lag), which offsets the improvement in the non-oil current account deficit.
The total current account deficit (march number) is still increasing), therefore, weakening dollar helped US manufacturers at the expense of European exporters ONLY. The fundamental for weak dollar is still there.
The current account is still deteriorating. US imported way too much oil (12m barrels per day).
2. Hedge funds push up futures prices for agricultural products, which started to impact SPOT MARKET prices over time. Sooner or later, US domestic inflation will go back to its 1970s level, no matter how much decoration the US gov can put on its "core" number.
Working classes will shout out and congress will get the message. Weak dollar policy will start to backfire (it will take at least one year).
Now is the worst time in America's history since WWII.
作者：parisparis 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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