| 作者 |
 [原创] 原油，股市让老谢（国忠）再次误判 |
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| 所跟贴 |
老谢预测是2007年第3季度开始吧。 -- 筋斗云 - (16 Byte) 2007-3-29 周四, 16:23 (411 reads) |
king神
头衔: 海归中士
加入时间: 2007/03/26
文章: 9
海归分: 663
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作者：king神 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
Xie used horizon over 18 -24 months (as I remember) for oil prediction, which is just a trick to save himself from trouble.
With such high volatility on oil and such a long horizon, any price point can have a very good probability.
Suppose oil price has 100% volatility, how much is the probability that oil can go reach $26 from $52 (when Xie started to mumble) in any time in two years? It is 32%.
IMO, a good prediciton has to be within very short period (1-2 months) and has a random chance of less than 5% accuracy or an odds ratio of 20:1.
None of the economists dare to do so! They are trying to fool everyone, if the price reaches what they claim, people might think they have had amazingly accurate prediction; while in fact, even a random selection has better than 50% chance for a volatile stock/commodity to have a 100% retracement in a couple of years.
作者：king神 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
上一次由king神于2007-3-30 周五, 14:30修改，总共修改了1次
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