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印度很长时期都不能超越中国的原因 -- 不拉不拉 - (1120 Byte) 2006-12-06 周三, 09:37 (4265 reads) |
austin powers
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作者：austin powers 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
India's economy
Too hot to handle
印度经济：热得烫手
Nov 23rd 2006 | DELHI, HONG KONG AND MUMBAI
From The Economist print edition
Why the sizzling Indian economy is more at risk than China's
为什么热火朝天的印度经济比中国经济更具风险
INDIA'S curries can be even hotter than the fieriest of Chinese hotpots; likewise the temperature of the two economies. Despite widespread claims that China's economy is overheating, actually India's shows more signs of boiling over.
印度咖喱可能比中国最辣的火锅还要辣，印度经济也可能比中国经济更热。尽管许多人称中国的经济过热，但事实上印度显现出更多经济过热的迹象。
In the year to the second quarter, India's GDP grew by an impressive 8.9%, while China's more up-to-date figures show even more breathtaking growth of 10.4% in the year to the third quarter. But to judge whether an economy is too hot, one needs to compare this expansion in actual demand with potential supply, ie, the sustainable rate of growth. Despite India's growth spurt in recent years, its sustainable pace is still much lower than China's, which puts its economy more at risk of overheating and rising inflation.
今年前两季度印度GDP增长率是8.9%，令人刮目相看，然而最新的今年前三季度中国GDP增长数据表现得更为惊人－－10.4%。但如果你要判断一个经济是否过热，你需要将该国的实际需求的增长与其潜在供给也就是可持续增长水平进行比较。尽管印度近年来增长迅速，但其可持续增长水平远低于中国，这使印度经济存在更多的过热与通货膨胀率上升的风险。
China's double-digit growth may look like a danger sign but there are few of the usual troubles. Inflation is only 1.4% and China has a widening current-account surplus, which implies excess supply rather than excess demand. Nor do asset price gains look particularly excessive. Average house prices have risen by less than 6% in the past 12 months. And share prices have gained only 42% in the past four years. Even the expansion of bank credit has slowed to an annual pace of 15%, not much faster than nominal GDP growth.
中国的两位数增长率看上去可能象个危险信号，但其实中国并无多少常见问题。通胀率仅为1.4%，外加不断增长的经常项目盈余，这意味着中国存在着过度的供给而不是过度需求。资产价格收益（asset price gains)看不去也并不特别过度。过去12个月中普通住宅价格上涨低于6%。另外股票价格在过去四年中只上涨了42%。甚至连银行贷款的增长也降到每年15%，并不比名义GDP增长率高出太多。
In contrast, India's economy displays an alarming number of signs that things have gone too far. Consumer-price inflation has risen to almost 7% (see chart), well above Asia's average rate of 2.5%. A recent report by Robert Prior-Wandesforde at HSBC finds many other signs of excess. For example, in a survey of 600 firms by the National Council of Applied Economics Research, an astonishing 96% of firms reported that they were operating close to or above their optimal levels of capacity utilisation—the highest number ever recorded. Firms are also experiencing a serious shortage of skilled labour and wages are rocketing. Companies' total wage costs in the six months to September were 22% higher than a year earlier, compared with an average increase of around 12% in the previous four years.
相反，印度却显出一系列经济过热的迹象，足以让人警惕。消费价格通胀指数已升至近7%（见表），高于2.5%的亚洲平均水平。汇丰银行的Robert Prior-Wandesforde最近一个报告发现更多的过热迹象。比如，全国应用经济研究理事会（National Council of Applied Economics Research）对600家公司进行了调查，结果却令人吃惊，96%的公司声称他们在接近或超出公司的生产能力利用系数的最佳水平下运作，这是史无前例的最高数据。这些公司也正面临严重的技术工人短缺，工资急剧上涨。九月前六个月总工资成本比去年同期上升22%，而前四年的平均增长率仅约12%。
India's current account has shifted to a forecast deficit of 3% of GDP this year from a surplus of 1.5% in 2003—a classic sign of excess demand. Total bank lending has expanded by 30% over the past year, close to the fastest growth on record.
印度经常帐户在2003年是盈余的，占GDP的1.5%，而今年却变为预计赤字，约占GDP的3%，这是需求过度的经典表象。总银行信贷比去年增长30%，接近往年最高水平。
India's share and housing markets also look bubbly. Draft proposals by the central bank on November 17th to cap banks' exposure to stockmarkets and curb reckless lending only mildly dampened the optimism. Share prices are almost four times their level in early 2003. India's price/earnings ratio of 20 is well above the average of 14 for all Asian emerging markets. House prices have also gone through the roof: Chetan Ahya of Morgan Stanley reckons that prices in big cities have more than doubled in the past two years. Housing loans jumped by 54% in the year to June (the latest figures available) and loans for commercial property were up by 102%.
印度股票与住房市场看上去也充满泡沫。11月17日印度中央银行起草了多项建议，意在对银行进入股市的资金设定上限、抑制不够慎重的借贷，但只能使乐观情绪稍稍下降。股票价格几乎是2003年初的四倍。印度的股票市盈率（ price/earnings ratio）为20，比亚洲新兴市场平均水平14高出许多。住宅价格也已高得离谱，摩根.斯丹利的城坦.安雅(Chetan Ahya)估计在过去两年中大城市房价翻了一倍多。今年到六月份为止住房贷款（最新数据）剧增54%，商用物业贷款更是增长102%。
Indian policymakers seem reluctant to admit that economic growth has exceeded its speed limit over the past three years, let alone slow it. They prefer to bask in the belief that India has become another China, able to keep growing ever faster without inflation rising. Palaniappan Chidambaram, the finance minister, has said the Indian economy will continue to grow by more than 8% in the next few years.
印度政府似乎不愿承认过去三年里经济已超速增长，更别说放慢它。他们更愿意满意地相信印度已经变成另一个中国，能够增长得更快，同时能保持通货膨胀率不再上涨。印度财长Palaniappan Chidambaram曾说，印度经济将会在将来几年中以超过8%的速度持续增长。
India's trend growth rate has almost certainly increased but it is still nowhere near as high as China's. Mr Prior-Wandesforde estimates that it is now around 6.5%, up from 5% in the late 1980s. But India's recent acceleration largely reflects a cyclical boom, thanks to loose monetary and fiscal policy. The Reserve Bank of India has raised one of its key interest rates by one and a half percentage points to 6% over the past two years, but inflation has risen by more, so real interest rates have fallen and are historically low. This makes the economy more vulnerable to a hard landing.
几乎可以肯定印度的增长趋势还在加速，但跟中国的速度还是不能相比。Prior-Wandesforde先生估计现在印度经济增长率大约为6.5%，高于1980年代的5%。但印度近期的加速增长大体上属于周期性繁荣，得益于宽松的货币和财政政策。印度储备银行（The Reserve Bank of India）在过去两年中将关键的利率提高了1.5个百分点，现为6%，但通胀率上升得更多，所以实际利率其实在下降，而且处于历史低位。这使印度经济很容易遭受一场硬着陆（hard landing）。
India cannot grow as fast as China without igniting inflation because of its lower investment rate, particularly in infrastructure, and labour bottlenecks. The latest government figures, for the year ending in March 2005, put total investment at 30% of GDP, compared with over 45% officially reported in China.
在不引发通胀的前提下，印度是不可能和中国增长的一样快的，这是因为它的劳动力短缺瓶颈与较低的投资比率，尤其是在基础设施领域。最新政府数据是到2005年三月为止的前一年，显示总投资为GDP的30%，而中国官方公布的数据是45%以上。
Some, however, believe that an investment boom is under way. A recent report by Surjit Bhalla of Oxus Investments, an economic research firm and hedge fund, has caused a stir by estimating that investment in the year ending in March 2007 will reach between 38% and 42% of GDP. Such investment, he says, would allow India to sustain 10% annual GDP growth.
但有些人认为印度的投资浪潮即将来临。最近由一家经济研究公司兼对冲基金Oxus投资公司的 Surjit Bhalla 发布的报道引起了不小的争议，他预计到2007年三月为止的前一年投资率将会达到GDP的38%至42%。他说，这些投资将会使印度经济年增长率达到10%。
Sadly, Mr Bhalla's estimate for investment is almost certainly too high. Unless saving (29% of GDP in 2004-05) has also surged over the past two years, an investment rate of 40% would imply a current-account deficit (which must equal the gap between saving and investment) of close to 10% of GDP. This does not square with trade figures and, in any case, it would hardly be a sign of economic health. Nor does a significant increase in saving look likely given strong consumer spending this year and only a modest fall in the government's budget deficit.
令人遗憾的是，Bhalla先生对投资的估计肯定是过高了。除非过去两年中的储蓄率也上涨（04-05年为GDP的29%），否则40%的投资增长率就意味着经常帐户有接近10%GDP的赤字（此数据肯定与储蓄率与投资率的差据相等）。但这与贸易数据又并不相符，无论怎么说，这都很难算是经济健康的迹象。鉴于今年强劲的消费支出增长与政府赤字仅下降少许，储蓄也不会有较大增长。
When China's President Hu Jintao held meetings with the Indian prime minister, Manmohan Singh, in Delhi this week, they agreed there was room for both countries to prosper in their overcrowded corner of the world. It is, however, wishful thinking to believe that India can now run as fast as China without a higher investment rate and a more flexible labour market. The danger of red-hot curries is that they can leave one gasping and in tears.
中国国家主席胡锦涛本周与印度总理曼莫汉•辛格(Manmohan Singh)举行的会谈中，都认同两个世界人口大国有继续繁荣的空间。然而，相信没有更高的投资率与更灵活的劳动力市场的印度能增长得象中国一样快只是一厢情愿。吃最辣的咖喱有个危险，它能让人大口喘气、眼泪汪汪。
注：本文中多次用咖喱的辣来比喻印度的经济过热。这是因为在英文中“辣”与“热”是同一个字hot，一语双关。
作者：austin powers 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 印度很长时期都不能超越中国的原因 -- 不拉不拉 - (1120 Byte) 2006-12-06 周三, 09:37 (4265 reads) - 为什么热火朝天的印度经济比中国经济更具风险----- ZT <经济学人> -- austin powers - (7992 Byte) 2006-12-06 周三, 13:14 (827 reads)
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