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 近期在美买房须知。芝加哥市区的还是不便宜。 |
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ceo/cfo
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作者：ceo/cfo 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
ZT
Indifferent to the bleak real estate headlines, 26-year-old Michael Klauer and his fiancée recently bought a two-bedroom condo in the desirable Lake View neighborhood in Chicago. They weren't in a rush to buy, but when an opportunity presented itself only a month after they started looking, they jumped on it.
The apartment, listed at $519,000, was theirs for only $480,000 — an initial offer they didn't back down from, even though they knew the seller had bought the place 10 months earlier for $512,000. Factoring in the broker's fee and sales taxes, the seller lost more than $44,000 on that deal, according to the couple's realtor, Jay Michael, owner of the Estate Property Group in Chicago.
"We leveraged the fact that they'd already moved out and were in a [financial] struggle to keep two places," Klauer says. And even though the condo's value may drop further, the couple wasn't concerned since they plan to live in the place for at least three to five years. "It was a good time to buy," he notes. "Prices are on the down low, and it's something I could sit on for a while."
Watching housing prices plummet is just the push opportunists like Klauer need to jump in and snatch up a bargain on a prime piece of property — one that just a little over a year ago was unreasonably overpriced. But, in this market, such deals don't come without pitfalls from tighter lending standards to widespread expectations that home values will continue to fall as foreclosed properties glut the market.
Home prices declined 8.9% in the fourth quarter of 2007, compared with the same period in 2006 — the largest drop in 20 years, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which tracks housing data. Many markets posted double-digit drops, including Miami, where home prices fell 17.5%, and Las Vegas and Phoenix, down 15.3%. (If that isn't daunting enough, consider that during the 1990-91 recession, decline rates bottomed at 2.8%.)
Even though demand for homes and construction may start improving as soon as the second half of this year, Celia Chen, director of housing economics at Moody's Economy.com, projects that the housing market won't completely hit bottom until mid-2009, largely because the glut of unsold homes created by foreclosures will continue to depress prices.
It doesn't help that interest rates, which in late January fell below the 6% threshold for mortgages of $417,000 or less, are as stable as a teenager's mood swings. For the week ending Feb. 29, rates were up to 6.3%, according to market research firm HSH Associates. Rates on jumbo loans, or those of $417,000 or more, remain high, at an average 7.18%. "It's a very unsettled marketplace," says Keith Gumbinger, vice president of HSH Associates. "Rates are high for a couple of weeks and then go back down, as investors are running up and down the seesaw on inflation and recession."
It's no wonder that most buyers are staying on the sidelines. In January, existing-home sales declined by 23.4% from the prior year, according to the National Association of Realtors. New-home sales also sank to their lowest point since early 1995.
"People are waiting for the other shoe to drop," explains Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel, a New York-ba<x>sed real estate appraiser. "You could even argue that there are lots of people who want to buy, but they don't want to look stupid."
Yet, with so many properties to choose from and desperate sellers willing to negotiate, it may still be tempting to buy a home in this tumultuous market. Here are three things you should know before you start house hunting.
Clean up your financial act
Still gripped by the credit crunch, mortgage lenders have gotten much tougher. Credit score requirements are going up and down payments are back in vogue, Gumbinger says.
"The break line of good to bad credit used to be a FICO [score] of 620," he explains. "Over the last year, it's moved to 650, then 680 and now it's starting to push over 700." Borrowers who have lower scores may have to come up with higher down payments, or settle for loans with higher fees or interest rates.
Getting a home with low or no money down, meanwhile, is a thing of the past. Lenders may even require more than the traditional 20% in markets that are especially hard-hit. Last December, Fannie Mae issued a directive, effective Jan. 15, 2008, increasing down-payment requirements by five percentage points in declining markets. (So, if a certain type of loan allows up to 90% financing, buyers in some markets will have to put down 15%, rather than 10%.) "A lender will not give you a loan with 5%, 10% or even 20% down in an environment where the loan he makes today may be greater than the value of the home tomorrow," Gumbinger explains.
Borrowers who have good credit, have the cash for a down payment, manage their debts well and have the documentation to prove their income and assets won't have a hard time qualifying for a mortgage. Fall short on any one of those requirements, however, and things get a lot more difficult.
Stay away from foreclosures
Foreclosures are touted as great deals (especially by services that sell foreclosure listings). In some areas, real estate agents have even started taking potential buyers on "foreclosure tours."
In reality, however, buying a foreclosed property — or even one in a neighborhood plagued by foreclosures — is risky. "A heavy concentration of foreclosures indicates that there's some sort of economic problem in the region that will keep your home value from at least remaining stable," says Miller. "Or that there was some speculation and there may still be some air left to come out of that market."
In addition to suppressing values, foreclosures lead to increased crime and an overall decline in communities. Brad Charnas, an appraiser in Cleveland, says there are some neighborhoods in his area that may never come back to normal. "You can't believe the damage that's been done by all the homes that have been abandoned," he says. "Squatters are taking over, they're using candles because there's no electricity and putting the homes on fire."
Take your time
Jay Michael, the Chicago realtor, is in the market for a condo himself these days. But when he sold his apartment in December last year, he moved into a rental so he can take his time. "I'm looking for someone who wants to sell far more than I want to buy," he says. When he finds that seller, he won't hesitate to low-ball. A month and a half ago, he made a $750,000 offer on an apartment with a $1.175 million asking price. "The agent told me the client was so insulted they didn't even want to counter," he says. "So I told them to keep the offer on file. Further down the line they might find they want to sell at $750,000."
That may have been unthinkable a year ago, but could now help you snatch a nice piece of property at a bargain price. Research, however, is essential. Before making an offer, find out when the seller bought the place, how much they paid for it and how much they owe. (A realtor should be able to provide this information, although it's also public record.) Knowing more about their personal situation — whether they have more than one property to support, for example, also helps.
Without a doubt, a buyer's strongest ally in this market is time. "If you're in it for the long term, it might be an OK time to start looking for a house now," says Economy.com's Chen. "I'd just really take my time and find something really good. You have the luxury of a lot of choices and can really bargain."
作者：ceo/cfo 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 近期在美买房须知。芝加哥市区的还是不便宜。 -- ceo/cfo - (7916 Byte) 2008-3-11 周二, 08:38 (1941 reads)
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