| 作者 |
 ZT The core inflation remains in check. Stocks rally again. |
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ceo/cfo
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作者：ceo/cfo 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
U.S. consumer prices accelerated last month at their fastest pace in almost two years on sharply higher energy prices but underlying inflation remained under wraps, bringing it down closer to the Federal Reserve's comfort zone.
The data suggest that higher energy, wholesale and import prices haven't seeped into broader consumer inflation, which should keep Fed officials on hold as underlying inflation remains on the moderating trajectory they have long forecast.
While the latest reading on consumer prices shows inflation is under control, the upside risk remains, says Ethan Harris, chief U.S. economist for Lehman Brothers.
The consumer price index rose 0.7% in May, the Labor Department said Friday, up from April's 0.4% rise and the highest gain since September 2005. Yet the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, advanced just 0.1%, down from the previous month's 0.2% increase.
Unrounded, the CPI rose 0.674% last month. The core CPI advanced 0.149% unrounded, so that component came very close to being rounded up to 0.2%.
The data were broadly in line with Wall Street forecasts with the headline number a bit above expectations and the core a bit below. The median forecast of 27 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires was for a 0.6% CPI increase and 0.2% core rise.
Overall consumer inflation was up 2.7% from a year ago. The core CPI, in contrast, was up just 2.2% compared to a year ago, down 0.1 percentage point from April and the slowest annual increase since March 2006. Over the past three months, the core CPI has grown at a 1.6% annualized rate.
The figures suggest the Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25% for an eighth-straight time when it meets later this month and maintain its anti-inflation bias.
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the core personal consumption expenditures price index, has also trended down in recent months and was running at a 2% annual clip through April. That is considered the top end of the Fed's preferred zone.
Still, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said last week that while there has been a "gradual ebbing" in core inflation, risks remain to the upside. The sharp rise in headline inflation will likely keep the Fed on edge about the possibility of pass-through effects down the road.
Financial markets have in recent days come to grips with the idea that the Fed probably won't lower rates this year, as once was widely expected, amid signs of robust economic growth. Bond yields have risen sharply in the past two weeks, and futures markets are even pricing in slight odds of higher interest rates next year. Friday's CPI report should ease rate-increase fears.
作者：ceo/cfo 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 ZT The core inflation remains in check. Stocks rally again. -- ceo/cfo - (2727 Byte) 2007-6-16 周六, 02:37 (1180 reads)
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