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 美元的崩溃即将到来？ |
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icarus
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加入时间: 2005/08/02
文章: 16
海归分: 1670
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作者：icarus 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
Iranian Bourse to Kill Dollar?
Iran continues to push its weight around. Now it proposes to begin pricing oil in euros. Unfortunately, just about everyone would benefit鈥攅xcept the United States.
For half a century, the American dollar has been the reserve currency of the world. Seventy percent of all currency reserves are in American dollars.
This has a lot to do with the fact that oil, the most important commodity traded in the world, is mostly priced in U.S. dollars. The majority of countries, being oil importers, have to buy their oil in U.S. dollars. This, together with related economic considerations, encourages them keep most of their foreign currency in dollars.
The debt-burdened U.S. economy is dependent upon this high demand for its currency in order to remain afloat. The day this demand comes to end will portend disaster for the American economy.
There is a move underway, however, to effect just such a reversal of the dollar鈥檚 fortunes. In particular, the world鈥檚 second-largest producer of crude oil鈥攁nd declared enemy of the United States鈥擨ran, seeks to end the predominance of America鈥檚 currency.
Several weeks ago, Tehran reconfirmed that it plans to create a euro-based exchange in oil鈥攖o compete with the London and New York dollar-denominated oil exchanges, both American-owned.
The proposed March 2006 launch of the Iranian oil bourse (iob), if successful, would give the euro a foothold in the international oil trade, solidifying its status as an alternative oil transaction currency. This, in turn, could be a catalyst for a major currency flight from the dollar to the euro鈥攁nd a disaster for America.
The iob will see crude oil, petrochemicals and other commodities of the same kind traded in euros.
Iran no doubt has multiple motives for making this move.
For one, it makes sense economically, especially since the European Union is Iran鈥檚 biggest trading partner. But more importantly, it would strike a blow to Iran鈥檚 archenemy America鈥攁nd, by hoping to make Iran the main hub for oil deals in the region, help drive the Islamic Republic forward in its quest for regional supremacy.
George Perkovich, an Iran expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, stated it frankly: 鈥淚t鈥檚 part of a very intelligent, creative Iranian strategy鈥攖o go on the offense in every way possible and mobilize other actors against the U.S.鈥?(Christian Science Monitor, August 30).
Iran is eager to eliminate American influence. For Iran, which foresees a 鈥渃lash of civilizations鈥?between Islam and America鈥攚hich holds the banner for the West鈥攗ndermining the dollar could prove to be its best and most effective strike against a more capable military foe.
Asia Times reported that only one major actor stands to lose if oil-trading in euros takes hold: the U.S. By contrast, 鈥淥il in euros would benefit millions 鈥?in the EU and its trading partners 鈥? And it would loosen the grip the U.S. has on opec members鈥?(August 26).
鈥淥ne of the Federal Reserve鈥檚 nightmares may begin to unfold in the spring of 2006,鈥?one expert on the subject stated, 鈥渨hen it appears that international buyers will have a choice of buying a barrel of oil for $60 on the nymex [New York Mercantile Exchange] and ipe [London鈥檚 International Petroleum Exchange] or purchase a barrel of oil for 鈧?5 to 鈧?0 via the Iranian bourse鈥?(Global Politician, September 2).
If oil-trading in euros were to get going, the already-existent global trend of foreign currency reserves being shifted from dollars to euros would rapidly accelerate. In turn, 鈥渃ountries switching to euro reserves from dollar reserves would bring down the value of the U.S. currency. Imports would start to cost Americans a lot more 鈥? As countries and businesses converted their dollar assets into euro assets, the U.S. property and stock market bubbles would, without doubt, burst鈥?(The Foundation for the Economics of Sustainability, Nov. 15, 2004).
The snowballing effect of a reserve currency switch would be catastrophic for the U.S., according to the Global Politician. The U.S. 鈥渨ould simply have to stop importing鈥?(op. cit.).
Considering America鈥檚 industrial and agricultural heartland has been gutted over the last half century, this possibility could be grave. As one commentator put it, the impact of the Iran oil bourse on the U.S. dollar鈥攁nd the follow-on effect on the U.S. economy鈥攃ould be worse than Iran launching a 鈥渄irect nuclear attack.鈥?BR>
Should Iran鈥檚 planned euro-based oil-trading mechanism get off the ground and gain international popularity, the U.S. dollar will weaken and the euro strengthen鈥攈elping to hasten the economic decline of the U.S. and propelling the European Union into dominance.
作者：icarus 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 美元的崩溃即将到来？ -- icarus - (4763 Byte) 2005-9-22 周四, 22:21 (1243 reads)
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