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 Is the rise of China considered a threat by someone? |
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ceo/cfo
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头衔: 海归中将
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加入时间: 2004/11/05
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作者：ceo/cfo 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
I am afraid the writing is on the wall. (ZT)
FIGHTING THE TAPE |
By HOWARD R. GOLD
U.S.-India Deal Is China's Wake-Up Call
LAST WEEK, a potentially momentous story got lost in the shuffle as the Washington press corps focused on the continuing Karl Rove-Valerie Plame scandal and President Bush's nomination of Judge John G. Roberts Jr. to the U.S. Supreme Court.
But following a White House meeting, the president and India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh announced a historic agreement between the world's leading and most populous democracies that may have a far more profound impact on the world over the next half-century.
The deal crowns several years of improving relations between the two countries, which were at times antagonists during the Cold War. It includes economic, political and technological cooperation plus a stunning U.S. decision to supply civilian nuclear technology to one of the world's eight nuclear powers.
Most importantly, it represents a big commitment by Washington to help India emerge as a great power in the coming decades. And on the chessboard of international politics, it's a shot across the bow—or at least a wake-up call—for China, whose relationship with the U.S. has become increasingly strained in recent months.
"If you take a long-term perspective, which is the best candidate to bet on? India," says Ashley J. Tellis, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, D.C. "This is an opportunity to kill two birds with one stone."
Tellis, a former staffer on the National Security Council and expert on both India and China, says the deal represents a major shift in U.S. policy
After India's successful test of a nuclear device in May 1998 (Pakistan followed two weeks later), the Clinton Administration imposed punitive sanctions on both countries.
That made sense at first, given the tensions in the region. India and Pakistan have fought four wars since partition in 1947, and Kashmir remains in dispute to this day.
But the sanctions were eased over time, as policy makers realized that in South Asia the nuclear cat was pretty much out of the bag.
That and changing strategic realities led to a fundamental reassessment.
In a joint statement issued after the July 18 Bush-Singh meeting, the president dubbed India a "responsible state with advanced nuclear technology."
Neither India nor Pakistan signed the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty, so India technically isn't violating that accord.
And unlike Pakistan, India has had a "strong commitment to preventing WMD proliferation," in the president's words. A.Q. Kahn, the father of Pakistan's nuclear weapons program, has admitted selling nuclear technology to Iran, Libya and North Korea.
Calling India a "responsible" nuclear power allows President Bush to ask Congress and other countries "to enable full civil nuclear energy cooperation and trade with India."
Why is that so important? Because as a rapidly growing economy, India, like China, desperately needs energy. And since it produces little of its own, it's looking to nuclear power to run its factories and light its homes. India currently has 14 operative reactors and nine under construction. It needs a lot more.
The bottom line for India: no nuclear power, no world power.
And that's what the U.S. now wants India to become. As Pramit Mitra, research associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C., puts it, "India is the only country in Asia that can match China's economic and military strength."
Although the experts I spoke with cautioned me to look at the U.S.-India deal on its own terms, you just can't ignore the environment in which it's occurring.
Recently U.S.-China tensions have been rising across the board.
First of all, trade.
Since international textile quotas ended on January 1, exports of Chinese-made garments skyrocketed 1,500%. That prompted the U.S. to slap on quotas limiting imports of trousers, shirts and underwear made in China.
Meanwhile, our balance-of-trade deficit with China is as wide as the Pacific Ocean.
Through May the U.S. exported $72.5 billion less to China than China exported to the U.S. At that rate, the total trade deficit with the People's Republic should top 2004's record $161.9 billion shortfall. More than two million U.S. manufacturing jobs have disappeared in recent years, many of them probably to China.
And as we know, China is currently the biggest buyer of U.S. Treasury bonds, holding roughly $450 billion in dollar reserves. It's no exaggeration to say that China's purchases of Treasurys are indirectly financing our housing boom by keeping long-term rates low.
In other words, the U.S. has suddenly become more dependent on China, the world's biggest Communist nation, and that makes Americans very uncomfortable.
No wonder so many politicians have been up in arms about China National Offshore Oil Corp.'s (Cnooc) $18.5-billion bid for Unocal, which now appears stalled
And military tensions have been rising, too. Earlier this month Major General Zhu Chenghu of the People's Liberation Army told reporters China would "respond with nuclear weapons" against U.S. cities if Americans "interfere" in any conflict between China and Taiwan (see The Wall Street Journal, "General Zhu Goes Ballistic," July 1 . Although General Zhu is known as a loose cannon, his remarks are no less chilling.
And in an unusually blunt report, the Department of Defense said China was at a "strategic crossroads" and that in the long term its growing military capabilities "could pose a credible threat to other modern militaries operating in the region."
By contrast, India isn't much of a threat at all – except perhaps to highly paid software engineers in Silicon Valley.
Its economy, while growing 7% per year, represents around 6% of the world's gross domestic product, roughly half that of China. Total foreign direct investment in China was about ten times India's total of $40 billion, as of 2001.
That means potentially more upside for the Indian economy, which trailed China by a decade in instituting free-market reforms. Some predict it will be the world's third largest economy in 25 years.
India and the U.S. have other things in common.
Both are democracies. Both are principal targets of Islamist terrorism. Both have extremely diverse populations – India's 1.1 billion people speak some 18 official languages (including, notably, English) and hundreds of dialects.
And a recent poll by the PewResearchCenter said that 71% of the Indian people had positive opinions of the U.S., the highest percentage of any major country surveyed. (In China, the comparable number was 42%. In Pakistan, it was 23%.)
Clearly that goodwill is leading to improved relations between the two countries and vice versa.
But will it accomplish its goals?
Well, following last week's White House meeting Chinese appliance maker Haier withdrew its bid for Maytag and the Chinese government announced it would no longer peg the yuan to the U.S. dollar but would let it float against a basket of currencies, including the greenback.
Coincidence? Probably. But one thing's for sure: In Beijing, they're paying pretty close attention.
作者：ceo/cfo 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 Is the rise of China considered a threat by someone? -- ceo/cfo - (7334 Byte) 2005-7-30 周六, 01:36 (1235 reads)
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