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 最近我也开始developing一种 Inflation anxiety，嘻嘻 通膨是一个无形的手在偷你我的钱包 |
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ceo/cfo
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作者：ceo/cfo 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
from FT
Published: March 19 2010 09:41 | Last updated: March 19 2010 16:17
For a long time, “2” was the magic number. Some, including the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, believe it might be “4”; others, “5”. In case you are confused, we’re discussing the benefits of higher inflation here, of which there are two. Higher inflation might reduce real wages and so boost employment. It might also shrink the West’s mountain of debt. After all, it worked before. In 1946, US national debt was 122 per cent of output. Ten years of 4 per cent average inflation later, it was half that. If only the same happened today!
But higher inflation is the wrong way to go, for several reasons. The 2 per cent rate targeted by many central banks already recognises that a little inflation is a good thing. (For reasons that keep behaviourists busy: most people do not accept wage cuts, yet are blind to inflation doing the same by stealth.) But if 4 per cent is deemed acceptable, it is only a short step thereafter to 6 or 8 or 10. Then 1970s-style wage indexation might return. Morally, boosting inflation after the fact also penalises savers.
Finally, and most pragmatically, any sense that central banks tolerated higher inflation now would raise financing costs. European governments alone have to raise some $1,500bn of debt this year.
It’s all been a polite, rather academic discussion so far, which is odd given that commodities are rampant, asset prices are bubbling, and inflation targets about to be or already breached in Asia and the UK. Perhaps, behind the scenes, a change of heart among central bankers has already happened.
作者：ceo/cfo 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 最近我也开始developing一种 Inflation anxiety，嘻嘻 通膨是一个无形的手在偷你我的钱包 -- ceo/cfo - (1661 Byte) 2010-3-21 周日, 04:44 (1423 reads)
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