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 2010 US stock market Outlook |
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阿修罗
[博客]
[个人文集]
头衔: 海归准将
声望: 博导
性别:  年龄: 45
加入时间: 2006/05/07
文章: 996
来自: Venus
海归分: 170826
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作者：阿修罗 在 谈股论金 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
Government always is the biggest Market Maker. 2010 is midterm electron year, politics is more apt to dominate the market. According the historical data, midterm electron years have been the third worst year of four-year election cycle. (The worst years are the post election years.) 2010 also is a "zero" year, which has the worst records in the decennial cycle. Both 1990 and 2000 are down year, but 1980 down moved up 14.9% and 1970 up 4.8%.
Dollar, Energy and inflation are more likely to be big economic stories for 2010. If there isn't significant green technology breakthrough or development as promised , energy still will be the major story. Oil will continue dominate the economy. This year we may see the cap and trade system become the reality. If the massive bailout is spent, we will start to see inflation in the end of the year.
We are just coming off the worst recession since the Great Depression. The scars in investors' portfolios and trauma in investors' hearts are seriously deep. The market rally continued through end of 2009 to early 2010, increase the possibility that midterm bottom in 2010.
As I mentioned before, January barometer is quite important for investors. As S&P 500 goes in January, so goes the years. Every down January on S&P500,no exception, preceded a bear market, a flat, or a 10% correction market. With the S&P 500 finishing January 2010 with a 3.7% loss, we have to prepare for the bears to use this as ammunition to take the market lower.
Even though US will take years for full recovery, but by the end of 2010, we may come to the end of the bear market commenced in 2000. Moreover, the Iraq war should be over, which will tremendous benefit investors.
作者：阿修罗 在 谈股论金 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 2010 US stock market Outlook -- 阿修罗 - (1995 Byte) 2010-2-11 周四, 13:31 (3027 reads) - 丁页修罗大虾 -- 孟岛塔 - (323 Byte) 2010-2-15 周一, 02:42 (383 reads)
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