| 作者 |
 [转帖]Seven Looming Financial Bubbles |
 |
MVSspm
头衔: 海归少校
声望: 教授
加入时间: 2008/03/27
文章: 395
海归分: 21366
|
|
|
作者：MVSspm 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
David K. Randall and Asher Hawkins, 12.15.09, 02:30 PM EST
Investors were burned by three bubbles this decade. Here are more to watch out for.
When investors look back at the past decade they'll most likely remember the money they lost more clearly than the riches they gained. Three can't-miss investing ideas--dot-com stocks, real estate and financial services--turned out to be over-hyped bubbles that ultimately popped and ushered in painful recessions.
Will the coming decade be any different? Not likely. Despite academic theories that claim markets assign assets the prices that they deserve, Wall Street has a troubling habit of inflating investment values until they pop. Long-term investors would do themselves a favor by steering clear of potential bubbles that could burst in the next decade.
One likely candidate is gold. The precious metal's recent run--up nearly 300% since 2000--has brought with it a boom of pitchmen, ranging from Glenn Beck to late-night infomercial hosts, who play off fears of everything from the dollar's collapse to rampant inflation to all-around financial Armageddon. In the end, their hype tends to boil down to the same thing: Gold is the best hedge against disaster.
Look closer and you may see signs of a bubble. Unless you expect gold to go up another 300%--to a price of $4,800 an ounce--the metal's best gains are behind it. Shares in gold miners, like Newmont Mining ( NEM - news - people ) and Barrick Gold ( ABX - news - people ), are up more than 25% in 2009. New exchange-traded gold funds are accumulating the yellow metal, reflecting the herd mentality that suggests gold is now a can't-miss option.
ETFs may themselves be forming something of a bubble in the coming decade. When they were first introduced, they seemed like a fine option for long-term investors, mixing the low cost and tax efficiency of index mutual funds with the all-day trading and liquidity benefits of common stock.
The popularity of ETFs soon persuaded Wall Street to load all manner of sketchy investments into these funds. Some promise to double the inverse return of the market, or triple the inverse return of oil futures. All told, ETFs are transforming from easy ways to track market indexes to exotic instruments only day-traders could love.
China may be another bubble worth avoiding. As Forbes' Gady Epstein recently reported, the Chinese government is responsible for debt equal to over 70% of the country's gross domestic product (the U.S. government, meanwhile, is responsible for debt equal to 50% of GDP.) China's growing boom looks suspiciously like the booms that preceded market crashes in Japan and in the U.S.--big developers are highly leveraged and dependent on the shaky notion that prices will rise and interest rates remain low in perpetuity.
Gold
Gold is up 300% over the last decade, in part because investors see it as a store of wealth during times of trouble and inflation. Look beyond the hype and you may see an asset with its best gains behind it. As an asset that generates no actual income, gold's price is purely a function of what others are willing to pay for it.
China
China has positioned itself as the factory for the world, pushing out everything from drywall to toys. It's growing in large part due to easy money. Its government is already on the hook for debt equal to over 70% of gross domestic product. By keeping its own currency artificially low, China has also pushed its citizens to invest at home, artificially inflating property and stock prices.
Emerging Markets
Investing in emerging markets was hugely profitable in 2009 as confidence in the U.S. waned. An ETF that tracks the Brazilian market has gained nearly 125% this year, but overall economic growth in Brazil has fallen short of forecasts. The main Russia ETF has gained more than 135% in 2009, even as the country's GDP shrank. Now is probably not a good time to be hopping on the notoriously volatile emerging-markets bandwagon.
Treasuries
Warren Buffett and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao were among those who lamented the Treasury bubble in 2009 as the U.S. borrowed to fund its record budget deficit. Signs the bubble is at or near the bursting point: rates on short-term bills that have fallen to negative levels after inflation--meaning investors are paying the government to hold onto their money--and a growing national debt.
College Tuition
Over the last 20 years, college tuition has risen at double the rate of inflation. There are now more than 60 colleges charging over $50,000 a year, and the average student now leaves school with $20,000 in education loans. With financially strapped parents reluctant to foot the bills, colleges may soon be forced to cut amenities--like gourmet dining hall food--introduced in boom times. And some ivy-covered doors are likely to close for good.
Exchange-Traded Funds
These index- and sector-tracking products were designed to provide investors the breadth of mutual funds on the cheap. They were a big hit in the wake of the last recession, jumping in number from 152 ETFs in 2004 to nearly 760 today. But this once pristine area is on the verge of being overrun by opportunists. Some investment companies have been hawking ETFs with expense ratios more than four times higher than those of their rivals. It won't be long before ETFs join the ranks of the dubious financial products they were supposed to replace.
Copper
Spot prices for copper spiked during the mid-decade housing boom, shooting from about $1,500 a pound in 2004 to nearly $4,000 a pound in 2007. Copper plummeted in 2008 to below $2,000, but prices are once again approaching boom-time levels. Some of the demand is coming from China. Another source is ETFs that let average investors buy commodities contracts that were once restricted to institutions, resulting in an oversubscribed investing idea.
作者：MVSspm 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
|
|
|
| 返回顶端 |
|
 |
|
-
 [转帖]Seven Looming Financial Bubbles -- MVSspm - (5980 Byte) 2009-12-18 周五, 21:30 (1464 reads)
|
|
|
|
您不能在本论坛发表新主题, 不能回复主题, 不能编辑自己的文章, 不能删除自己的文章, 不能发表投票, 您 不可以 发表活动帖子在本论坛, 不能添加附件不能下载文件, |
|
|
