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偶而冒个泡
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作者：偶而冒个泡 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
With all the gloom and doom in the news, I look for any signs of optimism 
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Wells Fargo Economist Sees Signs Improving
The Arizona Republic - February 27, 2009
by Russ Wiles
The Arizona Republic
The economic climate is certainly grim but likely won't get much worse, in the view of a senior economist at Wells Fargo.
"I think we're in the depths of the decline now, the belly of the beast," senior economist Scott Anderson said Wednesday in Phoenix, where he met with Wells Fargo private-bank clients.
"There are signs things are improving."
Anderson cited an uptick in retail sales in January, rising hourly earnings, low interest rates and a second monthly gain for the index of leading economic indicators.
He also said the credit markets have improved. For example, he said, commercial paper that last fall had to be purchased by the government now is being absorbed by private investors.
Still, Anderson cautioned that some economic numbers will continue to look bleak. For example, he foresees a 5.7 percent drop in gross domestic product in the fourth quarter of 2008 and a 5 percent decline in the current quarter, with continuing poor jobless numbers for a while.
But by the second half of 2010, economic growth could be running in the 4 percent range, he said.
Anderson expects the recently enacted stimulus package to add at least 0.8 percent to economic growth this year and 1.7 percent in 2010.
Ron Florance, a senior director of investment strategy at Wells Fargo, said the current climate provides "a generational opportunity" for investors. He suggests investors hold a broadly diversified mix of domestic and foreign stocks and other assets, encouraging those on the sidelines to venture back into the market gradually now rather than delay until the clouds clear.
"If you wait until you're comfortable, it will probably be too late," he said.
Anderson cited some firmness in housing sales as another positive. Housing prices probably will stabilize after sales do, he said.
Reach the reporter at [email protected] or 602-444-8616.
Copyright © 2008, azcentral.com. All rights reserved.
作者：偶而冒个泡 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
上一次由偶而冒个泡于2010-5-08 周六, 04:11修改，总共修改了1次
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 [分享] Wells Fargo Economist Sees Signs Improving -- 偶而冒个泡 - (2319 Byte) 2009-3-01 周日, 14:20 (1659 reads)
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