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 [分享]个人认为，价值不大；但是既然有同学提到，蛮帖。。From CL |
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天凉好个哈糗
头衔: 海归上校
声望: 教授
加入时间: 2006/03/27
文章: 731
海归分: 69072
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作者：天凉好个哈糗 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
PHILIP G UTSCH, CLSA CALYON SEC
Professor Scott Nelson (Economic History) presents on the crisis of 1873 to about 25 people. Whilst much is known about the great depression, courtesy of Russell Napier, much less is known about this global crisis. The similarities to today are actually much greater than the depression, and here is the quick sequence: 1) Property Bubble, Credit Crunch, Railroad Failure, Mkt Crash, Bank Failure, Deflation and Unemployment and riots.I will address each in turn.
1) It starts in the capitals of Continental Europe, where many banks in the 1860's begin a new form of lending called mortgage lending. Property Booms, and in Vienna prices from trough to peak rise 3x. Berlin, Paris and Vienna see stunning new buildings erected. (One bank which is very aggressive in this field is a new bank from Southern France called Credit Lyonnais, but it is unclear how it survived the coming storm). This bubble come to a head in the summer of 1873 when massive defaults begin.
2) The banking system was international at this time. Interbank rates skyrocket and continental euro banks begin calling loans from British banks. British banks in turn, were huge lenders to the American steel and railroad companies. They in turn, begin calling loans from their clients, and are not making any new loans. (There are no central banks or supranational banks at this time to stabilize the system)
3) American railroads, were aggressively competing with each other, had built way too much track, and financed it all with debt, both foreign and domestic. Jay Cook, a serious American Railroad tycoon, defaults in the fall of 1873.
4) The American Stock Market, dominated by railroads, collapses. Other railroads begin to default.
5)American banks now begin to fail, and again, there is no central bank aroudn at this time. Depositers lose money, there is no new lending and deflation sets in. Unemployment in Boston and NY hits 25%. There are massive strikes across the country and rioting in lots American cities. The "recession" lasts 4 years
6) America recovers by exporting its way out of the problem with latest consumer invention: Branded Food Products. Canned meat and vegetables take the world by storm. They are priced low, they are new, and they are very well marketed and advertised. They drive demand for steel and american agriculture.
作者：天凉好个哈糗 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 [分享]个人认为，价值不大；但是既然有同学提到，蛮帖。。From CL -- 天凉好个哈糗 - (2547 Byte) 2009-2-11 周三, 22:22 (1087 reads)
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