Hedge funds are often the black sheeps. Power of Soros fund and alike lies in the judgement of Macro situation. Long Oil and short US$ are correlated trade. The conspiracy theory of using Oil position to push $ lower is way too flattering for any hedge fund.
In 2001, had a sit down with Goldman's chief strategist. He was forecasting 1 euro to 1.05 $, when it is trading at 0.85 $. The forecast seemed to be wild at that moment. But euro is trading at 1.23$ this week and Goldman is forscasting 1.40$ based on economic situation.
I have a different view though. If Bush gets elected and keeps increasing the deficit while the Fed keeps increasing interest rate, the $ will get stronger in second half of next year.
