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 tahiti, remember what I said before? 奥地利银行向东欧地区的放贷量相当于本国国内生产 |
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不好意思刚看到这个帖子。我对东欧了解很少 -- 游客 - (186 Byte) 2009-2-23 周一, 16:59 (314 reads) |
天凉好个哈糗
头衔: 海归上校
声望: 教授
加入时间: 2006/03/27
文章: 731
海归分: 69072
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作者：天凉好个哈糗 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
Hungary: Monetary Policy Meeting PREVIEW: NBH to pause the rate-cutting cycle
Forecast: 9.50%
Previous: 9.50%
Consensus: 9.50%
Released: Monday, February 23, 2009 at 14:00 (Hungary)
NBH to pause the rate-cutting cycle
We expect the NBH to pause the rate-cutting cycle and leave the policy rate unchanged at 9.5% today. The decision is due by 13:00 GMT, with the press release coming at 13:30, followed by a press conference with Governor Simor.
The rapid sell-off in HUF over the last few weeks has put concerns about financial stability, in particular FX exposure of domestic borrowers, firmly on top of the policymakers' agenda. This should make the NBH pause the cutting cycle, despite the level of rates still being much higher than the weak economic outllok would dictate. Last week PM Gyurcsany asked the NBH to explore "unconventional" means to protect the currency, so the press conference will be also interesting to watch for any potential announcements. Finally, the MPC will also have new macroeconomic projections in a new Inflation Report (released to general public on Feb 25) which will give us a better sense of the bank's overall policy stance.
Ultimately the case for monetary easing remains strong, given the rapidly widening output gap and falling commodity prices, and so we expect the Bank to resume cutting rates once pressure on the HUF eases (our 12 month forecast sees rates 250 bps lower at 7%).
Regards,
Anna
作者：天凉好个哈糗 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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