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 美国在没落吗？说说美国近期所见所闻zz |
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美国在没落吗？说说美国近期所见所闻zz -- springbank - (2267 Byte) 2009-1-10 周六, 20:13 (3901 reads) |
parisparis
头衔: 海归少将
声望: 讲师
加入时间: 2004/09/04
文章: 1996
海归分: 276207
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作者：parisparis 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
对美国的经济危机，尽管到处都是危机的话题，一直没有太多感触，只有几个玩股票的朋友，纷纷说“已经输到脚底”了。 直到圣诞新年前后，与往年相比，感觉到了明显的变化。
The crisis(financial and economic) is just starting now. We are far from bottom yet, not only in States, but in Germany, many other european ones and China.
This crisis originates from MACROECONOMIC mismanagement, esp., due to the Fed and Treasury.
America still has
1.Political stability and a well-tested check and balance system. Obama's win defused the black-nonblack tension and win back the respect for law and order in America again.
I do not have confidence in many other nations, esp., those non-Japan ones.
2.Solid private sector--world-class management techniques, a reservior of talents in all field/functions. Capital market is still functioning and losers are still punished and pushed.
But the Haigui wave might speed up the loss of this advantage, but anyway, those talents will not be fully utilized in Europe and China.
3.Innovative culture: the entrepreurial infrastructure for new tech, new ideas is stil there. There is no fear of failure in this country and new tech in energy, communication and transportation will appear first in this country.
The reason is simple: nobody could manage innovations, even Japan MITI failed. You can only nurture competition and allow the market plays it out.
And I have full confidence in the brutal US market for new tech.
Next 2 years in America will be terrible, but will not be much better in the non-America world. If USD loses it status, America is not the bagholder for that. If the world ends up in another economy-induced-WWIII, then America can close its door and shut misery outside its frontyard.
第一个变化，物价涨的厉害。出差频繁，有小半年不怎么“大手笔”购生活物资了。 再次走进超市，发现物价涨了很多。 尤其米面，蔬菜，禽蛋等，相对半年前涨幅至少30%。
--same in Canada, China, Europe. But deflation is back after Oct. Inflation does not mean that American empire is over. Actually, Fed sponsored this global money printing and exported damage of inflation to other nations.
第二个变化，饭店冷清了。 以前常去的几个饭店，4个月前周末去还人气很旺，新年再去，冷冷清清。
---so was in Shanghai, in XinTianDi, in Dong Guan, in Hong Kong. US was in recession after Dec 2007. Bush's rebate check temporarily stimulated the economy in 2008.
第三个变化，警察罚款多了。 新年驱车前往纽约上州，朋友千叮咛万嘱咐，小心警察，纽约州高速路上警力增加了，加强了罚款，因为政府财政缩减。 罚款增加了内容，不仅有超速罚单，还有各种莫名的费用，一笔罚下来，可以高达400美元（以前最多也就100多元）。
--- Yes, your point is that state finance is in dire situation. That's true. Wall Street is to blame here for pension loss, state tax decline. But anyway, US deserved a recession to clean out the irrational excess in the past. So long as Fed gov kept on borrowing and Chinese/Jap keep on footing the bills, America will recover later.
There is no fundamental change to America's political stability. So one can be relieved.
第四个变化，美国开始提倡“勤俭节约”了。 朋友所在大学，平时各教学楼，实验室，图书馆，全天候灯火通明，现在能集中的集中，能不开的不开，节省费用。
--Americans are too wasteful, they should do that long long time ago. I definitely like such changes. But there is no damage to the social framework of American society.
第五个变化，路上旅行的少了。曾经数次圣诞新年驾车出游，就算是圣诞夜，路上也都能看到车辆来往频繁。唯有这次，依旧是圣诞夜，高速路上“一马平川”，半天看不到一辆车。 cruise（自动定速？）功能从未用过，这次终于用上了，索性盘腿坐在座位上，手搭扶一下方向盘，让车自己往前开，爽是爽，就是有点奇怪，美国公路从来没这么清净过。到收费站，有点感觉了，记得以前不收费的路段，也收费了，费用也明显增加。突然感悟：以前看到的美国种种“为人民服务”原来是有条件的：富裕的时候一个样，没钱的时候“为人民服务”也跟着缩水了。
---yes, gov. service is deteriorating and US infrastructure needs a big overhaul. BTW, tolls on roads are partially collected through gas sales levy and partially through tolls (new roads). Therefore, what you said does not really signal anything bad.
第六个变化，美国的自信在下降。朋友从加拿大过来，异常愤怒，他有5年没来美国了，这次感觉最明显的变化是美国边境官的态度，从前的宽松和善没有了，代之以粗暴恶劣。朋友因遭到了搜身，充满敌意的盘问，调查等等而愤怒，并发誓这是最后一次，从此不再踏进美国。朋友说，现在美国的边境官已经完全变了，“象被惊着了一样”，像对待犯人一样对待进入美国的人，对老人到小孩都是这种态度，已经看不到对人的尊重了，美国人自己抛弃了他们一直宣扬的价值观念。
--strong agree. 911 was a watershed and America was no longer friendly to foreigners. The Bush administration was creating a police state with so-called Patriot Act. The major writer of this Act is a Korean-American lawyer who systematically violated the long-lived Anglo civil liberty tradition. I was so sick of his selling that "imperative executive" concept, which was totally missing from the Constitution.
BTW, do not expect too much from Obama--he is also a believer that US constitution had fundamental flaws. I had more confidence in McCain than him.
曾经有个电视采访，一个80多岁的老太太居然被边境官揪到小屋盘问几个小时。主持人问美国边境官，为什么要这样？边境官回答“不给恐怖主义传递错误信息，告诉他们没有机会可以乘，无论老人和孩子，检查都严格。” 朋友说，“美国原来的自信已经没有了，经过这次经济危机，会越来越不自信。失去了自信，这是美国衰落的开始。”
第七个变化，穷人愈发贫困。薇是我认识的美国人中最穷的，67岁，退休前在大学图书馆工作。薇是美国“消费经济”的典型代表，“寅吃卯粮”借钱消费成习惯了，只要信用卡能借出钱来，就去消费。现在信用卡借钱困难了，她陷入了困境。圣诞前专程去看薇，她和猫都处在“断粮”的处境。
---yes. That's why democrats are back in control of all branches of gov. Social polarization needs a recession to cure. The superficial propersity hid the poverty problem in America.
America needs a strong mid-class to avoid social turmoil.
薇每个月退休金算起来不少，依然不够花。美国人对生活品质要求很高，住、穿、用、度、玩，都要维持在一定水准。比如薇不会为了省钱自己做饭，对于她来说一日三餐自己做简直是苦役。很多美国人都这样。 “我不知道明天发生什么”---- 这就是薇的信条。美国人对食物质量很在乎，薇即使没饭吃，也不会去买便宜的食物。都这么困难了，薇去跟男朋友约会，依然打扮的漂亮高贵，心情靓到爆，看不出是个生活陷入困境的人。
---they will return back to 1930s and relearn this lesson that their passed grandparents learned during the depression. Thrift will back.
做为圣诞礼物，我请薇出去吃饭，她高兴极了。去饭店是她喜欢的生活方式，已经有些日子没去了。吃饭聊天，说着说着，薇突然眼睛里蓄满了泪水，她的骄傲让她控制住流泪，她要她的尊严，那是西方人骨子里的，所以她只反复说感谢上帝，让她的男朋友和我都出现在她的生活中。薇对我会由衷的、真诚的感谢，但措辞语气绝不表现谦恭，她把所有的感激涕零和感恩戴德都送给了上帝 ----- 她需要这样，这让她保持住那份尊严和平等。人和人之间可以存在相互帮助，但不应存在同情怜悯的给予和感恩戴德的回报。也许只有这样，才让人们活的相对轻松，都能有尊严的、平等的相互面对。尽管这样的“尊严和平等”是“精神鸦片”式的，但让一个阶级的社会看起来“平等”，需要这样的麻醉。
临走的时候，我给薇的猫买了足够吃3个月的猫粮，给了薇一份可以去商店换回钱的礼物。 至于她是不是去换钱，那是她自己的选择。薇是这样的性格：可以没有钱，但不可以丢掉主宰自己的权利。 我不认同甚至“批判”的看待薇的生活方式，但我佩服薇能坚持的一种精神。
美国人像薇一样消费习惯的占大多数，美国的消费经济占到70%以上， 谁在养着美国的消费？ 是全世界。 但是美国人意识不到这些，包括薇。 他们被惯坏了。
---yes. Americans will suffer a long depression and the hard life will teach this generation a good lesson and whip them into another great generation.
What you saw happened in 1920s. Nothing surprising. This nation will rise again, no question about that--because it has a social framework of self-correction which is missing in Europe as well as in China.
从骄傲的美国人身上，更体会到中国人朴实中的伟大。 美国人像大丽花，要活的漂亮，中国人像草，活的就是那份顽强。 中国人的生活，美国人过不了。面对贫穷和艰辛，中国人能做到的，美国人做不到。
美国是不是真的从此走向衰落？ 我没有这种预见能力，不敢断言。
我敢断言的是：美国人过不下去的时候，一定会抢掠全世界。
---You can only do that financially. All other nations have nuclear weapons in hand, even its European cousins will not allow a free lunch for Americans. So long as Chinese elites can fence their nation well, America will have to climb out of their mess and work hard to pay back.
而中国人从不害怕苦难，无论什么样的困境，都能靠自己的力量，象草一样，顽强的挺过去。
hehe. Time will prove.
作者：parisparis 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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