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 China's Yuan Rises Close to Level Of Parity |
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Sorry to disagree with you respectfully... -- sapientaf - (8435 Byte) 2006-11-29 周三, 02:47 (464 reads) |
youhighness
头衔: 海归中尉
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加入时间: 2006/10/14
文章: 783
来自: 哲里木盟科尔沁左翼中旗木里图苏木爱搞不搞嘎查
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作者：youhighness 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
Surely agree with you that gold is a good hedge against inflation.
But don't quite consent with
Quote
" But GOLD also play a key role of affecting the USD/RMB exchange rate, because the RMB appreciation is driven by the inflation difference between US and China. NOT common belief of high saving rate or trade inbalance from China."
End Quote
In my opnion, it IS the high export surplus caused the RMB up. It happened in human history nemuous times and is a sure thing to bet. Forget all the sofisticated Quant models,
the simple rule is when a country becomes A or THE power of the world, it's currency will become stronger and stronger for a relatively long term.
Totally understand and respect professor's opnion that inflation diff and interest diff play the key role for the USD/MB FX rate. It's simply the application of Coverd Interest Rate Parity and PPP. This coincidence that "3.1% inf diff cause 3.28% FX diff" is highly not likely repeat itself again.
The reason? The RMB market is not free floating yet and will not be in the forseeable(3-5 years) future(my personal opnion, may not be right).
If market is free floating, the Cover IRP and PPP may hold when measured in a long term, say 20-30 years. Short term rate is hard to predict with any sofisticated Quant models.
Like old book saying: "THE BEST FX PREDICTION TOMORROW IS THE PRICE TODAY."
Agree with your opnion that gold is a good hedeg for inflation. But not so sure whether it is the inflation diff casued the FX rate change ?
Cheers!
作者：youhighness 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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